For all the thrill about Facebook’s explosive growth, it somehow seems like an enormous fad that would disappear or, at least, dissipate, if something cooler comes rumbling over the horizon. When parents and businesses start embracing Facebook, it’s probably the time for the new “bar” down the road to suddenly get “hot”.
Based on posts by Brad Feld and Fred Wilson, here’s my list of why Facebook could go from fast-growing to so yesterday before we think:
1. The evolution of its business model: What many of us like about Facebook is it’s a clean, easy-to-access look and feel. You log in, you quickly see what’s been happening in your world, you are doing your thing. What happens when Facebook starts to introduce more advertising into the combination so it can start taking advantage of its billions of pageviews? Suddenly, the lean look disappears because the business model starts to maneuver onto the scene.
2. In-box Contamination: Facebook works immediately because you opt how big or small you would like your community to be. the maximum amount as Facebook is hot, it’s still manageable in terms of deciding who you would like to invite/accept as a lover . But what happens – as Fred Wilson points out – when you’re swamped with Facebook invites? Suddenly, Facebook runs into an equivalent annoying problem as Plaxo and LinkedIn as your in-box gets invitation contamination.
3. Application noise. For all the thrill about Facebook opening its API to the planet , it’s also more noise for users. I can’t tell you the many multiple invitations I’ve got for Flixster, for instance . It’s already getting annoying. This is often a problem Fred Wilson focused on.
4. The IPO: There’s many speculation Facebook could go public later year – a move that might allow Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to tug some money out of the corporate without abandoning control. Once Facebook becomes a business that must meet the lofty expectations of Wall St., it’s about an equivalent time that the fun and all-for-one, one-for-all mentality starts to disappear.
5. Facebook Fatigue: immediately , Facebook is fun, it’s new, it’s a novelty but how useful is it really? How long before the many people that have piled into Facebook stop checking their profiles a day or, for that matter, hebdomadally .
Don’t get me wrong; i feel Facebook may be a fascinating social phenomenon also as a tremendous social networking tool. Maybe I’m being too pragmatic or a non-believer but every party reaches a zenith before leveling out so I’m interested by when that point comes for Facebook.