skype

Quick Thoughts on Microsoft-Skype

There’s been a flurry of coverage on Microsoft’s $8.5-billion purchase of Skype so here are some quick thoughts:

1. Microsoft, whatever you do, don’t screw up Skype. Big companies have a reputation for turning chicken into chicken salad so please don’t try to Redmond-ize Skype, which is a different beast.

2. I wonder how much Canadian taxpayers made from deal given Canada Pension Plan Investment Board was one of the investors when Silver Lake led a group that purchased 70% of Skype in 2009. At the time, Skype was valued at $2.75-billion.

3. How does eBay feel after finally cutting ties with Skype? It’s been six years since eBay made its curious decision to acquire Skype for $2.6-billion. At the time, it was a strange, out-of-left field move. At the end of the day, eBay made $4.3-billion – a nice return on investment but it was strategically and tactically distracting.

4. How quickly and deeply will Microsoft integrate Skype into Windows and its other products? I would suggest that after a short honeymoon, Microsoft Telecom (powered by Skype) will appear on the scene.

5. Does this open the door for a competitor? Now that Skype is owned by Microsoft, it’s no longer cool or rebellious, which was a big part of Skype’s appeal. Will Facebook and Google buy or build something to compete against Skype?

Is the High-Tech IPO Really Back?

The high-tech IPO is a mysterious beast. It’s attractive, seductive and irresistible. But it’s also fickle, temperamental and not always well-behaved. Still, investors have a difficult time resisting the high-tech IPO even when the fundamentals aren’t solid or even exist.

In the coming months, it looks like investors will get another opportunity to test their obsession with the high-tech IPO as companies such as Skype and Hulu prepare for public offerings. If these IPOs are successful – and there’s plenty of indication they will be enthusiastically received – it could open the floodgates for all kinds of IPOs.

The question facing investors is whether Hulu and Skype are anomalies, or whether the high-tech IPO has really come back from the dead. Hulu and Skype are solid well-established businesses with revenue, subscribers and track records. They are market leaders in markets experiencing rapid growth, which makes them strong IPO candidates.

These are the kind of IPOs that, frankly, were few and far between during the dot-com boom when anything with traction was sucked into the IPO machine. Of course, many of these IPOs bombed because the companies that did them were more projects than businesses.

As much as Skype and Hulu have investors excited, I’m concerned they are the cream of the crop, and that the high-tech IPO landscape is pretty limited. For all the talk about how costs are lower so high-tech businesses can get started with less capital, the reality is the business landscape is dominated by free and freemium. This makes the marketplace volatile and uncertain because there are competitors willing to charge little or nothing to attract customers.

The companies that succeed in attracting users and revenue will no doubt be attractive and could do an IPO if they’re not acquired but how many of these kind of companies actually exist? Probably not as many as you would think.

But the other reality is there’s a lot of venture capital that has been tied up in start-ups. The VCs sense an opportunity to cash out so there will be tremendous pressure on start-ups to do an IPO. This could lead to a glut of public offerings, including many companies that probably don’t have solid enough fundamentals.

If investors should remember anything from the past decade, it’s caveat emptor because not everything with a pretty IPO bow on them is going to have a wonderful present inside.

For more on the IPO landscape, check out this story in the Financial Post.

Skype’s Set Free (Almost)

When eBay purchased Skype in 2005, it was a $4.1-billion strategic head-scratcher.

Why eBay, the world’s leading online auction service, needed to buy a disruptive VOIP service provider – even one as popular as Skype – made little sense despite assertions there were many synergies, including how Skype would allow eBay to roll out click-to-call to enhance its core online business.

The deal was a mistake that distracted eBay and, arguably, retarded Skype’s progress.

The bottom line, however, is it wasn’t a complete disaster for eBay as they were able to get $2.75-billion for a 65% stake in Skype from a group of investors led by Index Ventures and Silver Lake Partners.

It’s a good deal for eBay because it gets the business refocused strategically, while providing eBay with some more financial stability and flexibility. eBay also gets to keep 35% as a way to ensure it shares in the wealthy if Skype becomes more successful and valuable.

More important is how it will, hopefully, provide Skype with more strategic flexibility and freedom to pursue ideas, new markets and new services that it couldn’t do while part of the eBay empire.

What’s impressive is that Skype has thrived financially while owned by eBay, so it will be interesting to see if Skype’s growth as a standalone entity will be even more impressive.

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