silicon valley

Color’s a Failure But That’s Okay in Silicon Valley

After raising $41-million and then pulling off one of the most inauspicious debuts since the Flock alpha, Color is apparently preparing for a pivot.

Here’s what I say about this “pivot”: When you raise $41-million before you have any users or revenue, you shouldn’t get to pivot because it shows that the original idea was terrible, and who knows if the pivot is going to be any better.

Color entered the ultra-competitive photo-sharing market with a product that wasn’t compelling, interesting or appealing. It generated a lot of “meh”, which is the death knell for any start-up.

How Color managed to raise $41-million let alone $4.1-million is anyone’s guess but strange things happen in Silicon Valley that the rest of us apparently don’t understand. Despite Color’s disastrous debut, there was something under the hood that we explain its ability to raise so much money. So far, we haven’t seen anything other than a new project with super-duper potential (tongue planted firmly in cheek) called Blue.

Color illustrates why Silicon Valley is so fascinating and there are so many successful start-ups: failure is not bad even if means having a $41-million investment blow up. Failure means you get to pivot, learn from your mistakes, and then try again with the same project or another project down the road.

Everywhere else around the world, failure is a terrifying prospect. In Canada, investors are so scared of failure that start-ups struggle to raise even modest amount of seed capital. We look at entrepreneurs who have failed as losers, while Silicon Valley sees unsuccessful entrepreneurs as brave warriors.

In Silicon Valley, it means Color gets an opportunity to pivot. I would be extremely surprised if Color was even modestly successful but at least it gets to try.

Silicon Valley and the Emperor with No Clothes

One of the things that really struck me about Facebook’s launch of a new location-based service is not that it really, really looks and smells a lot like Foursquare but how it has put the spotlight on the tremendous amount of hype that has surrounded Foursquare and how Silicon Valley does such an amazing job of supporting and fuelling this hype.

For months, the buzz has been Foursquare is going to be the next Twitter. While Foursquare really only had one feature (the ability to check in and broadcast your location), it was only a matter of time before other features were added to make it a lot more useful. Then, it would experience hockey stick-like growth.

Silicon Valley played a key role in pumping the Foursquare story, highlighted by the recent infusion of $20-million of venture capital (less the cash that Foursquare’s founders were strangely allowed to keep for themselves).

The deal was Silicon Valley’s way of propping up the hype even though there were already lots of questions about whether Foursquare could become more than a one-trick pony. And while Foursquare does have two million registers users, the real question to ask is how many of them are active users.

I would hazard to guess there is a lot of people who use the service infrequently or not at all. In my world, Foursquare is nowhere to be seen, and this is a crowd that embraces pretty much everything.

Not to throw stones at Silicon Valley but the reality is it plays multiple roles. There is the financing that comes from the venture capitalists and a huge talent pool to support the ecosystem.

But Silicon Valley is also into the selling and hyping its creations. There’s a giant marketing machine built into Silicon Valley’s DNA that does a terrific job of selling people on dreams and aspirations, including start-ups that may or not be able to attract enough users to become viable.

In many ways, this is a key part of Silicon Valley’s success. It is a place where eternal optimism rules. There is no room for negativity or having small dreams. In Silicon Valley, you aim for the stars even if the rest of the world may not buy into the stories you’re telling.

Foursquare is a perfect example of this ecosystem. It is a jewel that Silicon Valley is desperately hoping will turn into the mother lode.

Unfortunately, Facebook has probably exposed Foursquare for what it is: an interesting start-up that captured the imagination of investors, the media, bloggers and people on the bleeding edge but it will never be able to become anything more than it is right now.

Silicon Valley’s Obsession with Free

Let’s get the facts straight here: Foursquare doesn’t have to have a business model, it has “only” 1.5 million users in a market that appears to be a more niche than mainstream….but it still manages to raise $20-million in venture capital in a round led by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz.

Call me a skeptic but I don’t get it. It’s hard enough attempting to justify why Twitter has attracted more than $100 million in venture capital but at least it has 125 million users around the world. Nevertheless, there appears to be widespread enthusiasm for the deal.

The reality is none of this really matters to Silicon Valley, which invests in potential and possibilities even when the rest of us are scratching our heads. This is what makes Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley, and probably why the success rates within venture capital are so low.

Foursquare is another example of how start-ups that gain traction with a free service are so difficult for evaluate financially. Even when they are wildly popular, investors need to take a leap of faith in their continued growth and their ability in getting users or advertisers to start paying for the privilege of the service, its users or features.

Sure, there are a variety of potential business models for Foursquare such as local advertising and mobile commerce but it’s just talk until the money starts flowing in.

Silicon Valley, however, loves sexy stories with buzz in emerging markets – even if it is still unclear about the economics of these markets.

Hats off to Foursquare for raising $20-million but the one stark truth is money can’t buy happiness, and as Twitter has discover, it can’t buy a business model that will validate the venture capital being raised.

As much as it might be difficult to avoid the temptation to invest in Foursquare, particularly for anyone who missed out on Twitter, it’s still a risky investment given it is uncertain whether Foursquare is a novelty or business.

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