Wireless

Do the Number of Mobile Apps Matter?

By Mark Evans in Apple/iPod, Wireless 5 Comments Tags: , , , , ,

If you listen to Apple, size matters when it comes to the number of mobile apps offered to iPhone users. It’s seen as a strategic strength compared with rivals such as Android, BlackBerry and Microsoft, which have smaller but growing portfolios.

But in the scheme of things does size really matter? Does it really offer a distinct competitive advantage? Here’s where I’m coming from: On my iPhone, there are about 50 apps – many of them downloaded on a whim because they’re free. Of these apps, you know how many I use on a regular basis? Less than five, and I suspect that most people fall into the same camp.

It means if every mobile platform offers the same small group of must-have apps (let’s aggressively assume 250 apps will account for more than 80% of total usage), then having more than 100,000 or even 50,000 apps doesn’t matter.

Yes, I accept the argument that having more apps offers the opportunity to serve the needs of many niche markets. And I recognize there’s marketing mojo in having a large app collection. But if push comes to shove, size doesn’t matter at all as long as consumers have their “basic” needs covered.

I’ve been thinking about this thesis for awhile but it was thrust into the spotlight after reading Randall Stross’ column in the New York Times yesterday on Nokia’s use of Windows Phone 7. One of the people quoted was Thomas R. Eisenmann, a professor at the Harvard Business School, who said:

“What is often missed is the diminishing returns after 1,000 applications. If a platform attracts the thousand-most-popular apps, then it provides almost anything a reasonable person would want to do with a smartphone.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

Less Wireless Competition in Canada?

By Mark Evans in Wireless 1 Comment Tags: , , ,

Now that a federal court has ruled that Wind Mobile’s ownership structure doesn’t comply with Canada’s foreign ownership rules, one of the options being openly discussed by analysts and Wind is the possible consolidation of the wireless market. This could see Wind acquire one of the new players – Mobilicity and Public Mobile – so Wind can get back onside.

How ironic given the effort made to introduce more wireless competition. If consolidation became a reality, the wireless market could quickly revert to its former self with maybe, at best, a few new players.

It raises the question about how long any kind of competition – wireless or broadband – can really exist in Canada without foreign ownership rules being relaxed. Right now, the biggest problem facing competitors is there are few buyers for their companies and, as important, a limited number of investors. With few financing options, selling out to one of the incumbents is a strong possibility, which means less competition.

Amid the speculation about Wind’s future, it is important to remember that consolidation is nothing new to the Canadian market. Microcell, for example, was the new kid on the block that shook up the landscape with lower prices. Then, it ran into financial problems and filed for bankruptcy protection before it was acquired by Rogers.

The federal government allowed the transaction to go through even though it meant a major competitor was going to be swallowed up by an existing competitor. A couple years later, the government then decided Canada needed more competition.

If you’re at all confused about what’s the horizon, you are probably not alone. The biggest question is whether consolidation is inevitable or a healthy scenario. Is this what the government envisioned when it decided there had to be more wireless competition?

The BlackBerry: It’s the Keyboard, Stupid

By Mark Evans in Apple/iPod, Wireless 10 Comments Tags: , , ,

It wasn’t that long ago that Steve Jobs basically declared the BlackBerry to be dead in the water. As far as Jobs was concerned, the BlackBerry’s days as a relevant and tier-one smartphone were over.

You know what? Jobs may actually be wrong for the first time in a long time. Last week, Research in Motion posted better-than-expected third-quarter results in which it shipped 14 million BlackBerrys. And despite the fact the iPad is the cat’s meow of the tablet market, there appears to be strong interest in RIM’s PlayBook, which will appear early next year.

For anyone trying to figure out how the BlackBerry is keeping its head above water amid the iPhone, Samsung Galaxy and the growing number of smartphone options, here’ the answer: the keyboard.

The keyboard is the BlackBerry’s “killer app”. Forget about apps or a touch screen, it’s the keyboard that rules the BlackBerry roost, and drives sales. If you look around, it’s not just businesspeople using the BlackBerry. There are lots of young people with BlackBerrys, many of them furiously tapping away on the keyboard.

These younger consumers are text-messaging (including the wildly popular and free BBM), doing e-mail and, of course, using social media (Twitter, Facebook, MySpace, etc.). For them, the keyboard is essential because it is a superior experience to a touch-screen. Sure, touchscreen technology is improving but the tactile feel of a keyboard is what counts right now – something the BlackBerry has down even though it has also embraced touchscreen technology with the Torch.

As long as consumers find a keyboard to be a better experience, and as long as smartphone makers focus more on touchscreens, the Blackberry will continue to thrive because the keyboard does the job. It may not be sexy or leading edge but the keyboard works.

The Samsung Galaxy is Ultra-Cool

By Mark Evans in Wireless 1 Comment Tags: , , ,

The Samsung Galaxy is ultra-cool. It’s a sleek, beautifully designed wireless device.

While you might say “Mark, you’re just another gadget geek excited about new, shiny toy”. And while that my be true, a far more significant consideration is how so many non-geeks see the Galaxy as cool. I’m talking about people like my hockey buddies, who enthusiastically show off their new Galaxy phones without any prompting. It is something I haven’t seen with any other non-iPhone device. No one has pulled out their Blackberry Torch to gush about screen, applications or the high-quality videos.

In a smartphone world dominated by the iPhone, the ability to be seen as “cool” is crucial to have any kind of success. The benchmark is so high that devices that aren’t cool have no chance of being widely adopted. Until now, no device has been able to capture the imagination of wireless users. The Galaxy has a huge opportunity to break the rule.

So, what makes the Galaxy so cool?

For one, it’s the design. Slightly longer than an iPhone but a bit slimmer than my iPhone 3GS, the Galaxy S Vibrant I’m evaluating has a nice, comfortable feel. The screen quality is top-notch, which is particularly important to watch videos and movies. In many respects, the Galaxy has the same features and functionality has the iPhone.

While iPhone users may suggest the key competitive difference is the number of applications within iTunes. Truth be told most of the major services are available for Android-powered smartphones such as the Galaxy. In a few minutes, I downloaded two of my go-to mobile apps, Twitter and Facebook. As a GMail user, I like the fact a GMail app came as a standard feature.

Perhaps the biggest appeal of the Galaxy is it seems like a viable alternative to the iPhone for people looking for a cool smartphone. These are consumers who may not want to become part of the Apple Nation, and have no interest in using a Windows-powered smartphone. Before the Galaxy, there wasn’t a compelling option to the iPhone.

Maybe the Galaxy is a cool, shiny toy but from the number of people now using them, it is definitely attracting a lot more attention than any other smartphone.

Do Consumers Want Canada’s New Wireless Players?

By Mark Evans in Wireless 4 Comments Tags: , , ,

In theory, more competition in Canada’s wireless market is a good thing because it will encourage the industry to become more innovative and, hopefully, it will drive down prices, which rank as the highest in the world.

The question, however, is whether consumers are interested in Canada’s new wireless players, which have emerged to compete against the three large incumbents – Rogers, Telus and Bell. So far, it doesn’t look like consumers really care much about the new competitors, which includes Wind, Public Mobile and Videotron.

Earlier this week, Wind CEO Tony Lacavera said the company has attracted about 140,000 customers. On the surface, it looks pretty good but it does appear the company has enough traction to reach its goal of 1.5 million customers by the end of its third year of business. In Quebec, Videoton only attracted 8,400 wireless customers in the third-quarter, failing to meet the 25,000 to 30,000 expected by analysts.

While the new wireless players will talk about the progress they are making, the harsh reality is Canada’s wireless landscape is a challenging place to establish a foothold when you consider how long the incumbents have been able to establish themselves. While the new players are valiantly trying to capture the attention of consumers, the incumbents are aggressively counter-attacking every move the new players make. A blatant example is Rogers’ launch of the low-cost Chattr brand earlier this year.

Maybe the the new wireless competitors need more time to win over consumers and position themselves as alternatives. Perhaps it is a matter of consumers being able to free themselves of long-term contracts before being able to consider alternatives. It could be that the new players need to offer cool smartphones given this is where the market is rapidly heading.

But any you want to cut it, Canada’s wireless market is, on the surface, more competitive but the bigger question is whether Canadian consumers are willing to enthusiastically embrace the new competitors.

How Are Canada’s New Wireless Players Doing?

By Mark Evans in Wireless No Comments Tags: , , , , ,

Looking at Rogers Communications’ third-quarter results, the “new competitive reality” (aka new low-cost wireless rivals such as Wind, Public Mobile and Mobilicity) is starting to have an impact on Rogers’ profits.

Faced with the reality that consumers now have more choices, Rogers has been forced to lower its prices, cough up better deals to existing customers who threaten to leave, and launch a low-cost wireless service of its own, Chattr. This may be bad news for Rogers but it’s good news for consumers who are paying some of the highest wireless prices in the world.

Amid the doom and gloom about Rogers, there’s one key metric missing: Other than the fact Rogers is being forced to play nice, how many consumers are actually signing up with Wind, Public Mobile and Mobilicity? Is the competition winning lots of business or simply forcing the incumbents to offer sweeter deals?

There has been little subscriber information from the new players other than a press release by Wind in August that it had “welcomed over 100,000 customers in our first two quarters”. You need to figure out what “welcomed” means before getting too excited. Does this mean subscribers? Does it mean people who asked for information about what Wind is offering?

As much as it may be easy to dismiss Wind, et al, one lesson I learned an important lesson a few years ago that a a lot of business can happen without a lot of horn-blowing. I went to a Virgin Mobile event a few years ago, and told their PR person that I was going to guess how many customers they had. I wrote “25,000″ on my hand, and then showed it to her. Much to my surprise, Virgin had 250,000. When Virgin sold its stake to Bell, there were more than one million subscribers.

For all we know, the new players could have lots of customers or very few customers. As privately-owned companies, they don’t have to disclose any information unless it’s to their advantage. At some point, they may have to tip their cards to demonstrate to analysts and consumers they have enough traction to become viable and long-term players. But I think until they get a healthy amount of subscribers, don’t expect to hear any updates.

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