VOIP Services, Competition

Tech Urban Myth: The Workaround

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Is there such a thing as a “workaround” that actually, well, works? It strikes me that whenever a company gets in trouble for infringing on someone else’s IP, the company doing the infringing says “No worries, we’ve got a workaround somewhere around here that we had put aside for a rainy day”. Vonage, for example, claimed it had a workaround after a U.S. judge ruled it had infringed on technology owned by Verizon, while Research in Motion talked about a workaround during the latter stage of its legal woes with NPT Inc.

We never found out whether or not RIM did have a workaround because it ended up forking over more than six hundred extra-large ones (aka millions) to make NTP go away. Now, Vonage has admitted it doesn’t have a workaround after suggesting last week it had a workaround in development . Even worse, Vonage isn’t sure that a workaround is “feasible” given the extent of Verizon’s patents. This is bad news because it means Vonage will likely be unable to sign up new customers unless it reaches a patent deal with Verizon. Maybe Vonage’s new CEO, Jeff Citron (who used to be the old CEO), will be able to strike a deal with Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg.

For more, check out Thomas Howe, who is incredulous Vonage can’t create a workaround, as well as Engadget.

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Vonage: From Bad to Worse

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If losing a crucial legal decision to Verizon recently isn’t bad enough, Vonage now has find itself a new CEO after Michael Snyder resigned. As important, the company said it plans to slash operating costs by $140-million to “enhance shareholder value and improve its competitiveness in the marketplace”. This is particularly bad news for Web sites that have reaped the benefits of Vonage’s aggressive marketing efforts given the company has been spending nearly $200-million online a year.

Since Snyder joined Vonage in March 2006, Vonage’s shares have tumbled from about $14 to $3.09. The company has been battered by an ocean of red ink, increasing competition from cablecos getting into the VOIP business, inconsistent service, and a high churn rate that has forced Vonage to spend like a drunken sailor on marketing to attract new customers. From the very start, Vonage’s prospects as a business have been unclear given its growth strategy was tied to attracting as many customers as fast as it could by offering a low-cost product in a market with little barriers to entry.

To me, Vonage was always more of an investment play by co-founder (and now interim CEO) Jeffrey Citron, who figured someone would snap it up to establish a foothold in the VOIP market. As it turned out, no one was willing to step up to the plate. This forced Vonage to make a $17-a-share IPO, which amazingly was over-subscribed. You could make a solid argument that Vonage single-handedly killed the tech IPO market, which isn’t such a bad thing given it has forced many companies to focus on growing their businesses, while keeping overly-enthusiastic investors from throwing themselves into risky investment vehicles.

Note: Check out this ClickZ story on how Vonage’s trouble could impact the online ad industry. As well, Jon Arnold has an extensive post on Vonage’s conference call this morning.

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How Low Can Vonage Go?

After being hit with an injunction last week that prevents it from using VoIP technology owned by Verizon, Vonage shares plunged a record low of $2.98 on Friday before bouncing back to $3.37 today. Since its 17-a-share IPO, Vonage has dropped a staggering 80%. The obvious question is when does Vonage start to represent good value to investors and/or good acquisition material for someone looking to instantly add 2.2-million subscribers.

For investors, the question of value comes down to assessing whether Vonage can maintain its subscriber momentum amid increasingly fierce competition; whether it can keep more of its existing customers, which would allow it to dial back the dollars spent on marketing; and whether it can shrink its losses.

In many ways, Vonage is running in a marathon, and it can’t afford to stop spending if it wants to build a big enough subscriber base to establish a solid foothold. If Vonage decides to spent less on marketing, the cablecos will start to eat its lunch – which explains why Vonage is all over the NCAA basketball tournament, for example. At the very least, Vonage needs to keep pushing forward even if it runs into pesky hurdles such as injunctions, a stock heading south, large losses and a troubling churn rate.

In terms of the injunction, Vonage said the market is over-reacting (really, does anyone expect them to say otherwise?). In breaking the rule never to paraphrase Mark Twain in a press release, Vonage CEO Mike Snyder paraphrased Mark Twain by saying “the rumors of Vonage’s death have been greatly exaggerated. Friday’s events represented one small step in what is sure to be a long legal battle.”

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Vonage: Bullish or Bearish?

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First, the good news from Vonage’s fourth-quarter results: the VoIP service provider now has 2.22 million subscribers after it add another 166,000 customers in the quarter. Meanwhile, it only lost $65-million as revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier.

Now, the bad news: the stock tumbled to a record low, $5.25, amid concerns subscriber growth slowing. Vonage said it expects to have between 2.9-million to 3.1 million customers by the end of this year, compared with analyst expectations about about 3.5 million. The company also expects to lose $150-million to $170-million this year before becoming profitable in early-2008.

So what do you focus on: the good news or bad news? The narrower loss in the quarter or the concerns about subscriber growth? There’s no doubt the competitive landscape is getting more intense as the cablecos and, increasingly, the carriers become more aggressive. Then, you’ve got players such as SunRocket and 8×8. That said, Vonage has 2.2 million customers so it can’t be dismissed. The question is whether Vonage can continue to see strong enough growth to become profitable, establish a solid competitive foothold, and get investors excited again about a stock that has tumbled from its IPO price of $17.

For more, check out AOL Money & Finance; Russell Shaw, who is troubled by the subscriber slowdown, including soft sales during the holidays, and Larry Dignan, who wonders if Vonage has a future, and looks at a possible takeover (current price: $836-million) given the company’s depressed stock price.

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Galen Weston Should Blog

Jennifer Wells had a good column in yesterday’s Toronto Star in which she lamented the fact struggling but still dominant grocery retailer Loblaws had “become middle-aged, sexless – and this is the worst part – funless”.

Part of the cure, she said, is raising the profile of 33-year-old executive chair Galen Weston (“young, handsome and hip”), who’s family controls the company.

How do it is obvious: Weston should start blogging. What better way to communicate with constituents: investors, analysts, media, consumers, employees than to have a public vehicle to talk about Loblaws’ strategic plans, the competitive landscape and, most important, new products.

In making presentations about blogging, I use Loblaws as an example of a consumer-facing company that have embraced blogging already. It has a highly popular in-house brand, President’s Choice, that is very blog-friendly. Instead, Loblaw has continued to focus on printing increasingly zing-less colour brochures featuring President’s Choice products. As Wells mentions, a lot of people use to look forward to reading these brochures; now they head to the recyling bin pretty soon.

By blogging, Weston can become the new face of Loblaw, and show consumers the company has personality. At 33, he’s hopefully Web-savvy and understands how new media such as blogs can be a powerful corporate communications tool.

That said, I’d be extremely surprised if Loblaws embraced blogging. Its strategic challenges include fixing an inventory systems that has gone haywire and the looming threat of Wal-Mart moving into the Canadian grocery market.

From a P.R./media perspective, Loblaws has always been conserative (one spokesman handles all media calls, and the answers tend to be no-frills and punchless). Then again, 33-year-olds have a way of doing crazy things sometimes.

Videotron Surpasses 400K Customers

With more intense competition looming on the horizon from the soon-to-be-deregulated carriers, Videotron has proclaimed it now has more than 400,000 cable telephone customers after two years in the business. Of course, it helps to offer service for as low as $16.95 a month if you’re a triple-play customer but there’s no doubt Videotron has made life miserable for Bell Canada, particularly in Montreal.

The key question now is whether Videotron will be able to maintain this momentum when the local telephone market is deregulated, and Bell will be able to sell its service for whatever price it wants without seeking regulatory approval. Given Bell’s drive to improve revenue, it’s unlikely it will try to regain market share by slashing prices (that would be anathema to COO George Cope’s disciplined pricing approach) but you can expect Bell to do some targeting marketing in places where Videotron has a strong foothold. Should be fun to watch.

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