The Web is a funny creature. One day, you’re king of the world; the next you’re wondering where everyone went. Web users are fickle, willing to jump into the arms of another service in a heartbeat, and always looking for next shiny object.
Maybe it’s my eternal reservations about Facebook but I have a hunch there’s a chink Goliath’s armour. It may be small but Facebook’s dominance shouldn’t be taken for granted. The whispers start when hard-core social media users stars talking about how they rarely use Facebook because it’s “full of crap”. This comment was made by a PR executive who makes a living selling social media strategic and tactical services to clients.
Now you could dismiss this comment as simply a member of digital “elite” getting tired with his favourite toy. But another way to decipher this statement is it is an indication of a quiet movement starting to bubble up. One of the realities facing Facebook is the more mainstream it becomes, the less cool it becomes (assuming Facebook was ever cool!) As more companies and adults storm onto Facebook, its appeal among younger people diminishes.
At the same time, Facebook’s hunger to add more services (Places, e-mail, etc.) threatens to put it in “portal” territory -a place in which you can do everything without going anywhere else. (Anyone remember AOL?) It’s a compelling and potentially lucrative strategy but, at the same time, it is making Facebook a busier landscape with lots of bell, whistles and noise.
It is this cacophony that may start to drive people away from Facebook because every new service takes it farther away from its roots as a place for family and friends to share updates and photos. Maybe this explains why the person above lost his interest in Facebook.
Of course, millions of people continue to storm onto Facebook every week, and there are some people who believe Facebook will have one billion users by year-end. The thing about Facebook is it’s like a red-hot party – no matter crowded and uncomfortable, people keep on coming because it’s the place to be. But at some point, people may start to think there has to be another place with good music but room to move and hear yourself talk.
Facebook is far from reaching this juncture but it would be ill-advised to dismiss the concerns of people who are unhappy with the service. The only problem right now is there’s no other party happening with enough people to make it interesting. Until a legitimate rival to Facebook emerges, people leaving will be a dribble as opposed to a stampede.
More: If you’re looking for signs of Facebook’s growth, you can look no farther than its hunger for more office space.
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Some interesting points made here, Mark. However, I think the title seems to be a bit off considering the post’s content. Could you explain why that title makes sense for you? Thanks.
The title is meant to be provocative/eye-catching but I agree it’s somewhat misaligned with the content.
Mark
I don’t agree with the idea that Facebook is either losing its lustre or, according to the hipster press regarding its IPO, represents a poor investment.
First, FB is no longer about the elite early adopters, it isn’t even about the early majority, they’ve moved into the lucrative powerband of middle-of-the-pack users, and they are going to be there for a long, long time.
What you or I say or feel doesn’t matter one whit to the people who use Facebook casually – to browse pictures, play games and keep up with friends and family. These web users are not fickle, they don’t have shiny object syndrome, don’t buy a new computer every 12 months and have never heard of half the web services we’re already bored with.
If anything, the M and Z generations are more obsessed with Facebook than ever.
And besides – there isn’t anything else, at least in North America and Western Europe. A challenger, if there was one, is more likely to be purchased by Facebook than manage to compete with it.
Bottom line: there is zero statistical proof that Facebook is in decline, or even approaching its apex. The huffing of hipsters isn’t qualitative enough for me.
Trevor,
I guess I’ve been told.
Thanks for the insight and the series of good points. Glad to see I inspired some passion!
Mark
Only needy people use facebook 24/7 for constant validation.
These people can’t live without facebook they need to get their daily instant fix and can’t wait to read the comments from fb from their so called friends…. …..i mean how many friends can one possibly have. How genuine are these 500 plus friends that they have…..pathetic…. get a life………
The Crowded Facebook Party « @Strategyist
[...] Evans asks: can 600m people be wrong about Facebook? Of course, millions of people continue to storm onto Facebook every week, and there are some people [...]
I concur that the title is misaligned with content. However, you do make some interesting points. Though I do agree with Trevor somewhat that it will be a very long time before Facebook has to “jump the shark” however the folks at FB can’t get too cocky. Just note how quickly people get up in arms on Facebook when they change their privacy policies. They are safe until someone creates something bigger and better. AOL was a perfect example. Their IM capabilites were all the rage at the time.
So far, as marketers, we can’t discount Facebook as a powerhouse to reach a large audience with targeted messaging. And its a wonderful tool to keep in touch with family and friends old and new. That’s how I know what’s going on in the family without having to call everybody.
@Monnie someone needs a nap.
I cannot fathom Facebook and its attraction. I am a semi-geek level business man so I need to know about advertising – Facebook should be important. But I look at our page (created by one of our staff) and my eyes gloss over. It’s poor. All the creativity the web gives us is taken away by the formulaic standardised layout. It’s just comments from our staffer and a few pictures. Some random people “like” it… great. I don’t want you to like it – I want you to buy things please! So I see an advert from Ford cars – and at the end it asks me to go to facebook/ford. I’m stunned. They’ve spent millions of pounds advertising in the break of a very popular programme and now they want me to go to Facebook – not the ford.co.uk site… OK I must be missing something. I strap in and get ready to be impressed… But no. The Ford Facebook offering is similar to mine – except obviously with more ‘likes’. It’s got the same nonsense in there though – Pictures of the Mustang with comments like “wah yeah man thats cool dude” and other chestnuts. But the layout is the same as ‘my’ page and nowhere, as a party interested in researching a Ford car, can I get the information I want. It’s more Facebook than Ford. Now you have me absolutely baffled Ford – why oh why would you send me to this rather than your multimedia corporate extravaganza website where my attention is taken 100% by you and your brand. You’ve paid for the advert to get me here – why not let me have the best the web can allow.
The only thing I can thing of is the SEO that Ford.co.uk will get out of it, or maybe Facebook paid Ford to do it?
PS – the other odd thing I noticed about Facebook is that people sit there and say things like “Just had a nice coffee – going for a walk now” – and then when they get back they write “back now”…
..Really?
So there you go – sorry that’s long and rambling but I’d love a post back with a few answers