If there’s anything constant on the Web, it’s change.
New technologies emerge, new services are developed, people use the Web in different ways, and companies come and go, even those with strong brands and lots of users. Who could have imagined a few years ago that MySpace would become a second-class social network, or that Digg would become irrelevant, or that AOL would no longer be a dominant online player.
And despite Facebook’s dominance, the fact of the matter is it is as vulnerable to change as any online service. Sure, Facebook seems so embedded, it is difficult, if not impossible, to imagine it not being omnipotent but as quickly as some services jump into the spotlight, they can disappear.
One of Facebook’s biggest dangers could be its emergence as a corporate marketing platform. As more companies establish Facebook Pages, Facebook is, in some respects, moving away from its social network roots. Facebook Pages aren’t really social networks but marketing vehicles that let consumers have some sort of engagement. As much as brands want to think of themselves as social, can anyone really be social with a company or a brand.
Another reality is how people want to use the Web changes. While Facebook is seen as a way to stay in touch with and communicate with friends and family, there will be new players that may resonate with consumers in different and better ways. It could be that people get tired of Facebook after spending so much time with it.
This may explain why Facebook is pushing so aggressively into new areas such as phone service, wireless and location-based services because it believes that its users need new, shiny toys to stay engaged. The worst thing Facebook could do is become fat and happy. The risk, however, is that Facebook attempts to become so many things to so many people is it becomes confusing, cluttered and unfocused.
You may be saying to yourself that Facebook is too large to lose its position as the top dog. That may be true but nothing is guaranteed online.
