The high-tech IPO is a mysterious beast. It’s attractive, seductive and irresistible. But it’s also fickle, temperamental and not always well-behaved. Still, investors have a difficult time resisting the high-tech IPO even when the fundamentals aren’t solid or even exist.
In the coming months, it looks like investors will get another opportunity to test their obsession with the high-tech IPO as companies such as Skype and Hulu prepare for public offerings. If these IPOs are successful – and there’s plenty of indication they will be enthusiastically received – it could open the floodgates for all kinds of IPOs.
The question facing investors is whether Hulu and Skype are anomalies, or whether the high-tech IPO has really come back from the dead. Hulu and Skype are solid well-established businesses with revenue, subscribers and track records. They are market leaders in markets experiencing rapid growth, which makes them strong IPO candidates.
These are the kind of IPOs that, frankly, were few and far between during the dot-com boom when anything with traction was sucked into the IPO machine. Of course, many of these IPOs bombed because the companies that did them were more projects than businesses.
As much as Skype and Hulu have investors excited, I’m concerned they are the cream of the crop, and that the high-tech IPO landscape is pretty limited. For all the talk about how costs are lower so high-tech businesses can get started with less capital, the reality is the business landscape is dominated by free and freemium. This makes the marketplace volatile and uncertain because there are competitors willing to charge little or nothing to attract customers.
The companies that succeed in attracting users and revenue will no doubt be attractive and could do an IPO if they’re not acquired but how many of these kind of companies actually exist? Probably not as many as you would think.
But the other reality is there’s a lot of venture capital that has been tied up in start-ups. The VCs sense an opportunity to cash out so there will be tremendous pressure on start-ups to do an IPO. This could lead to a glut of public offerings, including many companies that probably don’t have solid enough fundamentals.
If investors should remember anything from the past decade, it’s caveat emptor because not everything with a pretty IPO bow on them is going to have a wonderful present inside.
For more on the IPO landscape, check out this story in the Financial Post.
