Twitter Isn’t Over-Hyped; It’s Just Misunderstood

By Mark Evans in Social Media 11 Comments Tags: , , ,

A week or so ago, I wrote a post looking at whether the shine was going to come off Twitter soon, and how it appeared that Twitter fatigue was creeping into the scene.

Recently, there have been some articles and blog posts about how anything and everything Twitter is over-reported – another sign that people are tiring of the Twitter story, if not Twitter itself.

Robert Scoble steps into the fray with a solid post about how he believes Twitter is under-hyped, and that it’s just starting to to scratch its potential as a valuable communications, business and marketing tool.

“I’m now convinced that Twitter has locked up a whole raft of businesses and that Twitter is actually worth five to 10 billion dollars,” he says.

Personally, I don’t think Twitter is under-hyped or over-hyped.

Instead, Twitter is just misunderstand – at least for now. Here’s why:

1. The 140-character (or less) limit seems like a restriction to many people. In fact, it’s a way of forcing companies and businesses to get to the point. You have to deliver the message quickly and succinctly without frills or hyperbole.

2. The fact it’s free and shows no signs of having a business model has likely caused many people to think Twitter is just SMS for older people, while teenagers use Facebook and text-messaging.

3. The ROI on Twitter is different from traditional ROI metrics within the marketing and advertising markets where the bottom line is higher sales.

With Twitter, you’re penalized if you blatantly try to sell because Twitter is a conversation medium, not a sales medium. On Twitter, you’re looking to build new and stronger relationships, which could lead to a more enhanced brand, word of mouth and, hopefully, higher sales.

4. Twitter is a platform so it’s a mistake to just focus Twitter itself as opposed to the ecosystem of third-party services built on the Twitter API. In fact, I would argue that the third-party services are far more interesting than Twitter, which continues to be a no-frills service.

5. While high-profile marketers such as Dell, Zappos, Comcast and Ford have embraced Twitter, and received a lot of attention for doing it, the vast majority of companies are still on the sidelines trying to figure out what it’s all about. In time, many of these companies will get Twitter, which will bolster Twitter’s role and value as a marketing and communications platform.

6. Twitter is still new and shiny, and growing like a weed so it’s attracting a lot of attention. In some respects, the tsunami of media and blog coverage has made it challenging for people to get Twitter because there’s just so much information being thrown at them. When the hype disappears, it could become easier for people to get their heads around Twitter the service.

7. From a public relations perspective, Twitter has taken a shotgun approach with its founder – Biz Stone, Ev Williams and Jack Dorsey – doing a flurry of interviews as the mainstream media tries to tell the Twitter story.

In some ways, this has confused many people because there seems to be a new story (e.g. Twitter will never charge people to use the service; Twitter will charge business users; Twitter doesn’t want advertising; Twitter wants advertising, etc.). This has made it hard to get a handle on what Twitter is going to do when it grows up.

7. It’s still early days for Twitter. It’s really only been a year since Twitter has seen strong growth – a report by Sysomos shows that 73% of Twitter users have joined this year. Like many companies and communications mediums, it will change, evolve and improve.

So, what do you think? Is Twitter over-hyped? Is it under-hyped as Scoble contends? Or it is misunderstood?

More: Ken Camp has a good post addressing each of Scoble’s points about Twitter on his blog, Stardust Global Ventures.


Google Wave is, Well, Interesting

By Mark Evans in Google 6 Comments Tags: , ,

There’s been a lot of hype and excitement since the idea of Google Wave was launched a few months ago – fueled by a tantalizing video.

jkOnTheRun, for example, gushes about Google Wave even though James Kendrick hasn’t been in the beta:

“Google Wave is an incredible technology that is hard to fully understand. It is messaging, email and real-time web collaboration all rolled into one, and the implications are far-reaching.”

The excitement about Google Wave has a lot to do with the idea it can be the place where you can do everything and anything, driven by a ecosystem of developers creating applications.

Having seen a demo of Wave yesterday, and been walked through it by co-founders Jens and Lars Rasmussen, I’d suggest Wave has potential but it’s difficult to get a good idea about whether the buzz is justified, or it’s just the geeks being stoked about something new and shiny.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure Google will eventually make Wave into something really interesting and useful but right now it’s work in progress. During the one-hour demo, it was clear that a lot more still has to be done, particularly relating to stability, speed and usability.

To me, the usability issue is paramount. I found the interface to be confusing, the iconography to be less than user-friendly, and the flow to be unintuitive. The demo involved a collaborative chat, which was sort of worked but it wasn’t smooth or simple.

My takeaway is Wave isn’t really ready to be shown to reporters given many of the features and functionality aren’t fully baked. I’m not talking about applications, which would help showcase Wave’s functionality and power, but the stability of the platform.

This means Google has an awful lot of work to do over the next five weeks as it gets Wave ready for Sept. 30 when the beta community will swell to 100,000 users.

The most interesting part of yesterday’s demo about monetization. Jens Rasmussen said the options include running ads against content (AdSense), as well as making Wave a part of Google Apps, which Google sells for $50 per seat/year.

“We plan to make Wave part that suite, which is why we are including some of those customers in the September preview,” he said. “We hope that it will drive additional sales of that product.”

When asked about a timeline for a more public demo, Rasmussen said a date hasn’t been set yet. Following the Sept. 30 launch, he said Google will spend a month feedback and server loads, and then determine the next steps.

At the end of the day, I’m sure Wave will be just fine and attract millions of users. Right now, however, it got a long, long way to go.

For some solid perspective on Wave, check out the Chicago Sun-Times’ Andy Ihnatko, who gives Google credit for being open about Wave’s development rather than making it a stealth project.


One Web Browser Isn’t Enough

By Mark Evans in Browsers 5 Comments Tags: , , ,

Here’s a confession: I’m a tab junkie. Not Tab, the diet cola soft drink sold by Coca-Cola, but Web browser tabs.

Without even thinking about it, there can be 30 to 50 tabs open within Firefox, which probably explains why Apple’s ball of death appears on a regular basis. The problem is there’s just too many interesting things to use and read.

So, what’s the solution for having an addiction to too many tabs? Well, you simply use a second browser (aka the secondary browser, according to my friend, Kevin Restivo). The second browser provides access to the services used on a regular basis: GMail, Facebook, Google Reader, Twitter, YouTube, Techmeme, Hacker News, et al).

For the second browser, I’m using Google Chrome. It’s a quick, no-frills browser that serves as nice companion to Firefox, which has all the bells and whistles (and add-ons) required.

Using two browsers probably isn’t the best or most processor-friendly solution but it helps manage my tab addiction. (Note: Hat tip to Cheryl Smith for the tab tweak.)


When Will Twitter Stop Being Cool?

By Mark Evans in Blogs, Social Media 3 Comments Tags: , ,

As the number of Twitter users continues to climb – 44.5 million in June, according to comScore – I’m starting to wonder when Twitter’s gloss is going to fade, and whether Twitter will go through the same kind of user evolution as blogging.

Right now, Twitter’s in the honeymoon period as millions of people jump on the micro-blogging bandwagon to see what all the fuss is about. Even my father is asking about Twitter after reading about it in the Sunday New York Times.

That said, many people using Twitter are barely using it. According to a report done in June by Sysomos (a client), more than half of Twitter users hadn’t posted an update in more than a week, which makes you wonder how many Twitter accounts are collecting dust.

This inactivity suggests there could be parallels between Twitter and blogging in terms of activity. In Technorati’s 2008 State of the Blogosphere, only 1.5 million of 133 blogs indexed had posted in the last seven days, and only 7.4 million had posted in the past 120 days.

Of course, it is easier to update Twitter than write a blog post given it only takes a minute or so to write 140 characters or less. But the same kind of enthusiasm about Twitter was alive and well just a few years ago when blogging erupted into the mainstream. At the time, everyone was starting a blog because it became so easy to get started using Blogger, Livejournal or WordPress.com.

And although Twitter is less labour-intensive, it can require effort and time to do updates that are interesting or have conversations with other people. At the same time, keeping an eye on Twitter can be exhausting and overwhelming given the constant flow of information.

I could be wrong but I think many people will come down with a terminal case of Twitter fatigue over the coming months. People who were enthusiastic about Twitter will use it less often; people who were somewhat interested will stopping it altogether. This doesn’t mean Twitter’s growth will stop but it will probably slow as the novelty factor disappears.

The idea of Twitter Fatigue has been rumbling around my head for a few weeks but it gained some traction after reading on a TechCrunch post by Devin Coldeway on Twitter on why he doesn’t use Twitter in which he suggests Twitter has no value because there’s often no context.

Another source of inspiration was Om Malik’s thought-provoking poston the evolution of blogging, which explores how blogging is going to change as social media and lifestreaming become a bigger part of peoples’ lives.

So, what do you think? Will Twitter lose its luster soon?

(Note: This post was cross-posted on Twitterrati.com)


The End of Anonymous Social Media?

By Mark Evans in Uncategorized 1 Comment Tags: , , , ,

Since blogging entered into the mainstream a few years ago, it has pretty much been an anything-goes landscape with bloggers feeling like they have the freedom to say anything about anyone.

And while journalists had to worry about libel laws, bloggers seem to have free reign given the medium was so new, so fast-moving and attracting scores of wanna-be journalists and writers opining to their heart’s delight.

But is the say-anything party about to end? A recent court decision against Google Inc. could be an indication that things may be about to change.

The case involves a Canadian model, Liskula Cohen, who launched a lawsuit against Google after a Blogger.com user wrote five posts on a site called “Skanks of NYC” that featured photographs and derogatory comments about her.

Cohen claimed the blogger posted photographs and “defamatory statements concerning her appearance, hygiene and sexual conduct that are malicious and untrue.”

In what could be a precedent-setting ruling, the courts ordered Google to disclose the name of the blogger, who turned out to be an acquaintance of Cohen’s.

Cohen’s lawyers, Steven Wagner, told the Globe & Mail that the ruling indicates that:

“People who behave poorly and defame people on the Internet will face possible repercussions. This is one of a series of cases that is establishing a standard. The standard is not set yet.”

Could this ruling strike fear in the heart’s of bloggers who hide behind the cloak of anonymity as they fire away with incendiary blog posts?

What about people on Twitter who write inflammatory updates but don’t have provide any information within their profiles about their identity. Could Twitter be forced to disclose their identities?

It could be that the Cohen-Google ruling is a sign that the Web and freedom of speech are about to enter a new era where libel becomes a bigger issue for everyone.

More more, check out ZDNet.


Looking Back at Google’s IPO

By Mark Evans in Google 2 Comments Tags: , , ,

It seems like a long time ago but it was only five years ago today that Google went public at $85/share.

In hindsight, what’s particularly amazing about the much-anticipated $2.7-billion IPO was the distinct lack of enthusiasm about it. This forced Google to reduce the offer price from $95/share.

Some of the concerns among investors included legal issues, a downturn among high-tech stocks, and Google’s unwillingness to offer much insight into how its AdSense program worked (something that still exists today).

There was also uncertainty about the “Dutch Auction” approach Google decided to use, which distributed shares directly to individual investors rather than the traditional approach that involves investment bankers and major brokers.

“I would not be stunned if Google closes down. Internet search companies have been through the ringer for the past few weeks,” Brian Bolan, an analyst with Marquis Investment Research, told CNet at time time. “A couple of up days don’t make a trend. There isn’t a full-throttle conviction behind this market.”

Michael Cohen, director of research with Pacific American Securities, said Google being valued as a mature company was “assuming a best-case scenario, which isn’t a for-sure outcome”.

Of course, it’s easy to have 20-20 hindsight given how well Google shares have done over the past five years, peaking at $714 in December 2007.

At the time, Google had been the world’s leading search engine for three years, and it had made nearly $1-billion in revenue and $105.6-million in profits in 2003. Still, there were more than a few people who really had a handle on how lucrative the company’s AdSense business was going to be.

As well, I’m not sure many people really understood that Google’s strategic ambitions went far beyond search.

Still, I can before thinking before the IPO that that investing in Google’s IPO was a no-brainer. Of course, even if I wanted to buy shares, I couldn’t because I didn’t have the cash and, as a reporter, I wasn’t allowed to buy shares in companies that I covered.

Here’s a copy of Google’s IPO letter from Larry Page in which he describes it as “not a conventional company”, and here’s Google IPO filing with the SEC, including the business risks.

Here’s a chart of Google’s stock performance over the past five years.


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