« What Are Web Surfers Hiding? | Main | Chrome May Be Shiny & New But…. »
How Badly Will Chrome Hurt Firefox?
By Mark Evans | September 3, 2008
If you listen to the fine folks at Google, they universally love Firefox. In fact, many of them agonized over Google’s decision to create its own browser because they didn’t want to damage the scrappy open-source rival that has given IE fits. (Wired has the inside story of Chrome’s creation.)
Nevertheless, Google decided it had no choice but to develop Chrome. Now the question is how badly will Chrome damage Firefox. Will Firefox users abandon ship because Chrome is simply shiny and new? Or will Chrome be a novelty for Firefox users who love the ability to personalize Firefox more than Chrome’s no-frills look and feel.
The other consideration is financial given referral revenue from Google accounted for more than 80% of Mozilla’s $66.8-million revenue in 2006. While the deal was recently extended to 2011, Firefox could get less revenue if a lot of Firefox users moved to Chrome.
My sense is Chrome will hurt Firefox but it will likely be more of a flesh wound than a major injury. This means you may see Firefox’s share of the browser market retreat to 15% from 20%.
Internet Explorer could be more vulnerable even though IE8 Beta 2 has been getting good reviews. Many IE users, who would never consider using Firefox, may be more enthusiastic about Chrome because, after all, it’s made from Google, the world’s leading search engine. By giving Chrome a no-frills, user-friendly interface, it may attract more attention.
For the sake of argument, let’s say Firefox retreats to 15% and Microsoft falls back to 55%. That could leave Chrome with about 20% of the browser market.
Does that seem reasonable or am I being too bullish on Chrome’s appeal?
More: There’s no lack of people who have tried Chrome, including Walter Mossberg, who liked it but not that much; and Alec Saunders, who suggests that Chrome “in the hard light of day I’d say the emperor has no clothes”.
Technorati Tags: chrome, Firefox, Google
Topics: Browsers, Google, Uncategorized |