Nothing Else is Working! Time for a Tax

So, let’s look at what the music industry has done over the past decade to battle the emergence of P2P and declining CD sales:

1. Essentially killed Napster rather than leveraging it

2. Launched a nasty legal war against consumers

3. Embraced technology such as DRM that consumers totally dislike

4. Gotten into bed with Apple, only to get pissed off once they realized Steve Jobs was taking over the business

Now, Warner Brothers CEO Edgar Bronfman Jr. has decided to take another controversial route: he’s hired industry executive Jim Griffin to lead a lobby charge for a – wait for it – music tax that would applied to ISP bills, and possibly raise $20-billion.

It’s simple; it’s lucrative and, darn shootin’, it’s going to save the music industry from dire straits (as opposed to Mark Knopfler’s Dire Straits). At least, it will be all these things in theory.

But as Mike Arrington enthusiastically rants about, it’s also “crazy” and “dangerously stupid”. It’s a move that smacks of desperation because the music industry has blown the last decade by trying to hang on to a business model that is antiquated and ill-equipped for new digital era in which we work, live and play.

For whatever reason, the music industry still believes consumers should pay for music even though consumers have been telling them for years, they’re only willing to pay a little bit or nothing at all. Look at how P2P services are still thriving, and how Russia’s AllofMP3.com was doing really well by selling albums for about $3 as opposed to $20.

So where is the money in music if consumers don’t want to pay for it? How about live performances – a neat concept dating back several centuries in which people pay for the privilege of becoming to see a musician(s). The amazing thing amid the glut of free music, consumers are happy to pay a premium price to see major performers. Hell, they’re paying $250 a pop to see The Police.

There’s also merchandise sales, access to special Webcasts, special boxed sets (Trent Reznor did pretty well recent by selling 2,500 copies of a $300 “ultimate-deluxe edition” while offering free downloads of nine songs from Ghosts I-IV), and other things that will require some creativity and risks.

In other words, there is life beyond selling CDs or digital tracks.

My friend, Mathew Ingram, makes a great point that if the music industry manages to somehow push through a music tax, how long would it be before the movie and television industries starting to look at a tax. And what about newspapers, magazines and photographers?

At the end of the day, I’m not at all surprised the music industry is exploring a tax. They missed the digital boat as it sailed away over the horizon. Sadly, they’re trying to force it to come back but using a tax but this approach is stupid, outdated and provides more evidence the music industry just don’t get it.

What Does eBay Do with Craigslist Stake?

Update: Silicon Valley Insider estimates Craigslist is worth $5-billion, making eBay’s stake worth $1.25-billion – not too shabby for an investment estimated at about $50-million.

With John Donahue taking over the eBay helm from Meg Whitman next week, I wonder if one of the key strategic issues on his plate is what to do with the 25% stake that eBay owns in Craigslist.

For the lack of a better word, it’s a “different” kind of investment given eBay does not seem to have any role in Craigslist, and there are no signs that founder Craig Newmark plans to sell or do an IPO any time soon. For eBay, the 25% stake, which has been estimated to be worth as much as $600-million, is pretty much dead-in-the-water money.

So, what does eBay do other than hold on for as long as it takes until Newmark feels it’s time to cash in and do something new and different. Perhaps waiting Newmark out is the best strategy given Craigslist’s strong brand, traffic (10 billion page views a month) and potential to generate a lot more revenue that Newmark and CEO Jim Buckmaster have chosen to currently pull in.

Of course, a lot depends on the terms of the agreement that Buckmaster brokered with eBay when it purchased the 25% stake from a Craigslist employee in 2004. This is entirely speculation but maybe eBay has a first right of refusal on the Newmark’s shares.

An intriguing question is whether anyone other than eBay would be interested in buying the stake? At face value, you have to believe there would be no lack of interested suitors looking to buy a stake in the world’s largest online classified player. The downside is they would likely have to deal with the same dead-in-the-water-until-Newmark-makes-a-move issue as eBay.

Another angle to the eBay-Craigslist relationship is how eBay’s own online classified business, Kijiji, comes into play. Despite the goofy name, Kijiji seems to be on a major roll (see the graph below that shows Kijiji and Craigslist had about the same amount of traffic last month), although it still lags far behind Craigslist.

If Kijiji emerges as a strong number two, does eBay really need its Craigslist stake? Or does eBay hold on to its Craigslist shares so it can have control of the two biggest players?

One more thought, if Donahue isn’t thinking about what to do with Craigslist, perhaps he’ll be focused on the future of StumbleUpon (I still don’t get why eBay bought it) and Skype (a great business bought at a rich valuation but not much of a strategic fit for eBay)

For more on Craigslist, check out this recent BBC.com story and video with Buckmaster.

Update: According to The Tech Chronicles, Craigslist is under fire from Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for brushing aside requests to stop running advertising for prostitutes. “I’m astonished and appalled by Craigslist’s refusal to recognize the reality of prostitution on it’s Web site – despite advertisements containing graphic photographs and hourly rates, and widespread public reports of prostitutes using the site,” Blumenthal said.

More: Craigslist has just added support for more languages, including Quebecois.

Technorati Tags: ,

FriendFeed Keeps the Hits Comin’

Picture 1-64
You’re probably going see an awful lot of coverage about FriendFeed’s release of its API that will let third-parties create applications that link into the hottest social network aggregator (aka Louis Gray’s favorite service).

While the API is obviously interesting, what I find particularly fascinating is how well FriendFeed’s strategy has rolled out over the past six months. Whether by design or simply luck (right place at the right time), it seems that FriendFeed’s strategic moves have unfolded just as they should.

The company, started by a group of ex-Google employees, got the ball rolling when it launched last October with some great media coverage from places such as the New York Times and GigaOm. Then, it unveiled two major developments last month: its official launch last month along with a $5-million venture round.

This was followed by another interesting bit of news last week with the release of a search tool; followed by the launch earlier this week of a feature that lets people reply to Twitter posts within FriendFeed; followed by the release today of the API.

Bang, bang, bang, bang. FriendFeed’s not only the “It” service these days, along with Twitter, but its ability to keep the fire stoked with announcements on a regular basis is impressive. It suggests the company has a solid roadmap for growth that it’s following.

In many ways, FriendFeed could be a valuable case study for start-ups looking for marketing insight on how to launch a service. Far too start-ups come out with guns a blazing and attract a significant amount of attention only to quickly disappear from the landscape because they have nothing else to announce to keep people excited about what they’re doing.

FriendFeed seems to be demonstrating that if you look beyond Launch Day, there are lots of opportunities to capture the imagination of bloggers, the media and, most important, Web users.

Technorati Tags:

Is There a TechCrunch Without Arrington?

Arrington
….or, for that matter, is there a Huffington Post without Arianna Huffington or a GigaOm with Om Malik?

After reading a Fortune story yesterday about how Michael Arrington is the “wizard of Web 2.0″, one thing that struck me is how synonymous Arrington is with TechCrunch. He is TechCrunch. He’s the owner, the main writer, the PR machine and the brand. If Arrington, for whatever reason left TechCrunch, is TechCrunch still TechCrunch?

Frankly, I think the answer is “no”. This isn’t a slight against TechCrunch’s other writers such as Erick Schonfeld but the reality is TechCrunch is so closely aligned with Arrington that it would be impossible to envision TechCrunch being TechCrunch without Arrington actively involved.

I would argue the same goes for the Huffington Post and GigaOm because the founders behind them are the brand’s living, breathing persona. You take them out of the equation, and it’s just not the same.

It means that Arrington, Huffington and Malik are married to their online babies for a long time. While Arrington talks about the idea of perhaps selling the business at some point, how much is TechCrunch really worth is Arrington walks away to start something else? The easy answer is far less than it’s worth with him involved.

It’s not that I expect Arrington to sell TechCrunch any time soon but it does illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of having such a large and strong personality at the helm of a company where the entrepreneur and the entity as so closely intertwined.

Update: 24/7, which put together a list of the 25 most valuable blogs, suggests TechCrunch is worth $36-million based on traffic (uniques and pageviews), demographics, monetization and risks (including the dependence on star founders).

Technorati Tags: ,

Come on Everybody, Let’s mesh

Picture 1-63
After a lot of behind-scenes-planning, several animated discussions and some last-minute flurry of activity, mesh ’08 is now live!

We’re really excited about the speakers we’ve got lined up. Our keynotes include Matt Mason, whose new book The Pirate’s Dilemma looks at the implications of digital piracy; Club Penguin co-founder Lane Merrifield, a Canadian who helped build a virtual world for children that was acquired by Disney for $380-million; and Ethan Kaplan, the head of technology at Warner Brothers Records. We’ll be announcing more speakers and details about mesh panels and workshops soon.

If you don’t know already, mesh is happening May 21/22. Tickets are $469 each, and there are 30 student tickets for $30 apiece. You can purchase tickets here. For more details about mesh ’08, check out the mesh blog.

In addition to mesh, we’re also announcing meshU, a one-day event with small, focused workshops that we hope will meet the need for practical, down-to-earth information about tools, knowledge and expertise for startups, web designers and developers of all kinds. Tickets are $239, and be purchased here.

Technorati Tags: ,

Time for the Blog Portal?

If you’re a fan of any of the major high-tech blogs such as TechCrunch, ReadWriteWeb, GigaOm and Mashable, you may be finding them increasingly difficult to read these days.

It’s not because the content isn’t interesting or high quality. The problem is there’s just too much of it.

With multiple writers pumping out lengthy posts throughout the day, it’s becoming an editorial tsunami. As a result, TechCrunch et al have arguably become less user-friendly because there’s just so much stuff to wade through.

Part of the problem may be the traditional blog format they’re using in which posts appear one on top of the other. It means that finding a particular post that caught your eye earlier in the day can be difficult to find again if it’s five or six screens down the road.

So, what’s the solution? One tactic may be the creation of spin-offs such as GigaOm’s NewTeeVee, WebWorkerDaily and Earth2Tech.

But there’s another approach. As much as anyone doesn’t like using the “P” word these days, it could be time for the emergence of the blog portal.

TechCrunch, for example, would be reborn with a three or four column design that featured five to eight stories on the front page with the biggest/best stories getting the most real estate. For readers, this would make it easier to look at a wide variety of content before diving into the blog posts that were the most interesting.

It is difficult to envision any drawbacks with the concept of a blog portal compared with the current linear format. A TechCrunch portal would have as much, if not more, real estate for advertising, although some widgets such as Swicki and MyBlogLog may have to be sacrificed. And if Mike Arrington wants any advice, he could always ask Arianna Huffington, who has made The Huffington Post a red-hot online content property.

So, what do you think? Is it time for the arrival of the blog portal.

Update: Fortune has a profile on Arrington that describes him as the ‘Wizard of the Web 2.0″.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...