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The New OS Landscape: Real Competition

February 29th, 2008 | 3 Comments | Posted in Microsoft

Vistaosx
A lot of people seem surprised by Microsoft’s decision to drop the retail prices of Vista, including a whopping 30% reduction for Vista Ultimate.

“It’s sort of an odd move,” said Gartner analyst Michael Silver, while NPD Group’s Chris Swenson opined “I can’t remember a big price cut like this.”

Boys, welcome to the new and exciting world of OS competition.

Gone are the days when Windows dominated the landscape while Apple struggled on the edges, and alternatives such as Linux were embraced by a small, ultra-geeky group. Today, Apple is booming while Linux is - surprise, surprise - moving, if ever so slowly, into the mainstream. Who knows, maybe IBM will bring back OS/2 given the revival in the OS landscape!

Microsoft may have sold 100 million copies of Vista since its launch last year but even the folks in Redmond know that Vista hasn’t been a booming success from a financial, brand or technology perspective.

For all of Apple’s poking fun at Vista, the truth is consumers - for the first time perhaps ever - have real choice. Buying a Mac is no longer seen as risky if you aren’t tech savvy, a graphic designer or a student. These days, people, who would have never thought about buying a Mac, have become Apple disciples even if it has meant paying a premium for the privilege.

All Microsoft is doing by slashing the prices of Vista is being smart. If you need a better competitive position to deal with pesky, revived rivals, a quick and dirty tool is lower prices.

The question, of course, is whether lower Vista prices will work. Since its launch last year, Vista has struggled to resonate with consumers even as Microsoft has dealt with some of the criticisms. It’s particularly telling - and embarassing for Microsoft - that demand for XP is still alive and well. itComputer Canada, for example, just launched a SaveXP campaign.

If Microsoft is going to revive Vista, it’ll probably take more than lower prices. Perhaps the next version of Windows will resonate with consumers but the harsh reality is the OS marketplace has changed and there’s nothing Microsoft can do to restore Windows’ dominance.

There’s a new kid in school, and his name is competition.

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Picnik Goes (Almost) Completely Free

February 28th, 2008 | 1 Comment | Posted in Uncategorized

Picnik
If you are looking for an excellent online photo editor, one of the best choices is Picnik.

Featuring a user-friendly interface and enough features to meet the needs of most digital photographers, Picnik has quickly gained a strong following. Of course, it’s helped that Picnik is free, although you’ve had to pay $24.95 a year for premium features. (Hat tip to Download Squad)

In a move that can only be described as surprising, Picnik has decided to eliminate the annual fee to use premium features. If, however, you still want to pay $24.95 a month, Picnik is offering a service that gives you access to new features, the ability to edit in full screen mode, and an advertising-free interface.

The decision to pretty much abandon its premium service makes you wonder about Picnik’s business plan. The company must believe that it will attract enough users to make it an attractive option for advertisers.

Of course, Picnik’s business model could also hinge of making itself nice and pretty for an acquisition. Last year, Flickr signed a partnership with Picnik that lets Flickr users access Picnik’s editing tools in a pretty seamless fashion. Picnik CEO Jonathan Sposato told Webware that Flickr has generated “double digit percentages of site growth”, as well as a healthy number of users who have migrated to the premium serfvice.

Another angle to Picnik’s decision is how its fits into the idea of freeconomics - the idea that free services are thriving on the Web because competition makes it difficult, if not impossible, for anyone to charge anything.

In the latest issue of Wired magazine, Chris Anderson has an article entitled “Free! Why $0.00 is the Future of Business” that talks about why free has become such a ubiquitous part of the online landscape. He suggests that since many online businesses can’t charge for their services, they will generate money primarily through advertising and premium services (a business model described as “freemium).

Who knows, maybe Picnik was inspired by Anderson’s thesis!

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BusinessWeek’s Blackberry-iPhone Obsession

February 27th, 2008 | 8 Comments | Posted in Wireless

Biphone
What with BusinessWeek trying to pull a Don King and create a heavyweight title match between the Blackberry and the iPhone?

For the third time in as many months, BusinessWeek has a story looking at the “battle” between Research in Motion and Apple for power mobile users.

Check it out:

February 27 - Apple versus RIM: Now it’s Game On

Jan. 3 - BlackBerry vs. iPhone: Who wins?

Dec. 20 - The Coming Apple-RIM Battle

The latest RIM-Apple story from BW was instigated by an media conference next week by Apple about the software roadmap for the iPhone “including iPhone SDK and some exciting new enterprise features.”

It looks like BusinessWeek is trying to create something that just isn’t there. Given Apple’s almost non-existent presence in the corporate marketplace, do you really think CIO are going to be embracing the iPhone as opposed to the rock steady Blackberry?

The Blackberry’s biggest strength is it does one thing really well - mobile e-mail - while the iPhone does everything except wash the kitchen sink. That makes the iPhone appealing to consumers but a potential nightmare for CIOs who are intent on controlling all aspects of their infrastructure.

It may be time for BusinessWeek to instigate a new fight cause Blackberry vs. iPhone shows few signs of intensifying any time soon.

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Hey, I’d Actually Pay For That

February 27th, 2008 | 7 Comments | Posted in Web 2.0

In the wake of Chris Anderson’s article about freeconomics in the latest issue of Wired - and a good post by ReadWriteWeb about the dangers of free - it got me thinking about what online services people would actually pay even a few dollars to use.

If you’re a blogger, would you pay to buy Wordpress or access to special upgrades, themes or widgets?

How do you feeling about Web hosting? Do you think it’s worth it to a pay a bit more for 99.99999% reliability has opposed to using some cheap, fly-by-night or free host?

Would you pay even a $1/month to access online services that became key parts of your work/personal life.

How about Twitter? What if Twitter decided the business was charging $1/month if you wanted to do more than 10 posts a month?

Would you willing to pay for premium services than provide more features than than a basic version - the so-called freemium model that has to compete against competitors willing to offer the same services at no costs.

So, are you willing to pay for anything? If so, what?

Disclosure: In terms of my own online spending, I pay for hosting (A Small Orange) and for statistics (Performancing.com)

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It’s Raining Apples!

February 26th, 2008 | 5 Comments | Posted in Apple/iPod

A couple of days ago, my friend, Kevin Restivo, had a provocative post that politely chided Apple for “the dizzying number of product releases” that was giving him a bad case of “Apple Fatigue”.

Lo and behold, Apple unveils some new MacBook and MacBook models today that look pretty sweet - more powerful processors, more memory, larger hard drives and multi-touch trackpads. For anyone who bought a MacBook or MacBook Pro recently, it’s probably not a good feeling to know your machine is already an antique.

Apple’s frenetic product cycle is both a blessing and curse - as well as a necessary evil for Apple.

It’s amazing to see such an innovative company consistently release better versions of its products. For consumers, looking for the latest and greatest, Apple is delivering pretty much across the board.

The downside is all these new releases can be confusing. Just when you’re getting your head around whether to buy a MacBook Air, a new line-up of MacBooks are unveiled. So, if you’re in the market for a MacBook, what do you do. Sometimes, too much selection can be a bad thing, which is why I like eating at old-style diner where you’ve only got four choices on the menu. And if you do decide to buy a MacBook, do you buy one now or wait a couple of months until a “better” one is released?

For Apple, it needs to keep the pump prime to drive sales. To keep consumers excited, engaged and, most important, spending, Apple has to keep the pipeline of new products flowing. It also keeps competitors on their heels because if Apple isn’t stopping to catch its collective breath, it is difficult for rivals to play catch up.

Before I saw the latest Apple announcement, I posted on Twitter about what would make for the better choice: a MacBook or MacBook Pro. Now, I know it’s the new MacBook….or maybe the next new MacBook.

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Tech Fuels NHL Trade Mania

February 26th, 2008 | 3 Comments | Posted in Media

Nhl
In the U.S., everyone knows about Super Tuesday in which 24 U.S. states are up for grabs during the presidential primaries.

Today is Canada’s Super Tuesday. It has nothing to do with politics but, instead, marks the last day that National Hockey League trades can happen. It used to be a low-event event where a few deals would happen but no one would pay much attention. Today, it’s a media bonanza with day-long coverage.

Much of the trade mania has to do with technology. With the 500-channel universe, there are several all-sports channels covering the trading deadline, some of them starting at 8 a.m. and running right until the the 3 p.m. deadline. Then, you’ve got all those sports Web sites offering up-to-the-minute breaking news, many of them with SMS alerts. And if you’re really a trade fanatic, you can always use your Slingbox to watch the comings and goings at work.

Have fun, everyone!

Update: The NYT’s hockey blog, Slap Shot, has some thoughts on watching trade mania.

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Why Can’t Broadband be Free Too?

February 25th, 2008 | 11 Comments | Posted in Media

Chris “The Long Tail” Anderson has an excellent story in Wired - “Free! Why $0.00 Is the Future of Business” - that pushes forward the concept that “freeconomics” is taking over the Internet as the technologies that power the Internet become increasingly less expensive. Here’s his thesis in a nutshell:

“It’s now clear that practically everything Web technology touches starts down the path to gratis, at least as far as we consumers are concerned. Storage now joins bandwidth (YouTube: free) and processing power (Google: free) in the race to the bottom. Basic economics tells us that in a competitive market, price falls to the marginal cost. There’s never been a more competitive market than the Internet, and every day the marginal cost of digital information comes closer to nothing.”

Amid the emergence of free and the decline in technology costs, there is one thing within the ecosystem that is resistant to price declines: broadband access. The more we use the Web to access free services such as video, the more we value broadband service. This, in turn, gives broadband ISP the ability to hike prices with few, if any, complaints.

Simply put, broadband is an online anomaly - and an exception to Anderson’s thesis - because there is little competition. If you’re lucky, you have two choices in a market - cable and DSL - although WiMax teases everyone as a potential alternative. Today, you pick you broadband poison (DSL or cable) and pay your monthly fee.

Other than the cablecos and carriers being able to capitalize on on a sweet supply-demand equation, is there any reason why broadband prices continue to rise when the cost of equipment (modems, routers, switches, software, fiber-optic cable, etc.) to power these networks is, theoretically, declining.

In an ideal world, shouldn’t broadband prices be staying stable or even dropping while broadband speeds get faster? Why shouldn’t broadband ISPs be passing along the savings to consumers?

Here’s another thought/question: shouldn’t the broadband ISPs be sharing the wealth with all the free services that consumers are using these days. YouTube, for example, is a huge marketing tool for broadband because you need a fast connection to really enjoy streaming video. Shouldn’t the ISPs be paying YouTube a co-marketing fee?

While freeconomics is taking over the Web as most everything becomes a freemium or ad-supported service, broadband is becoming the most lucrative online business. The more that’s available to consumers, the more bandwidth they’ll want, and the more broadband ISPs can charge by offering different service tiers.

If consumers were upset about rising ISP prices, wait until bandwidth caps become increasingly implemented as ISPs look for other ways to generate revenue. IPDemocracy had a post recently speculating that Toronto-based Rogers Cable is going to launch metered broadband service across the board. This could mean the disappearance of all-you-can-eat plans that consumers have happily gorged on since video emerged on the scene.

While there may be no such thing as a free lunch, there’s plenty of free stuff to be had online - as long as you’re willing to pay for the privilege of accessing it using a broadband connection.

One more thought about Internet access: Doesn’t it seem somewhat ironic that when the technology was far less advanced, there was no lack of competition - remember all the dial-up ISPs that used to exist by riding on top of the telephone system? Today, the ISP business is either a monopoly or an oligopoly.

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Can IE8 Neuter Firefox?

February 24th, 2008 | 1 Comment | Posted in Browsers, Browsers/Firefox

So, IE8 ready to be unleashed into private beta.

Question: will IE8 be able to fend off Firefox, which now has now has more than 15% market share?

Firefox has a few key elements going for it: momentum, a great brand and a thriving ecosystem happy to develop extensions/add-ons to make Firefox make useful. As well, the increasingly profitable Mozilla Foundation is getting more aggressive strategically - and even getting serious about taking Thunderbird along for the ride.

Should be interesting to see IE8 vs. Firefox 3.0.

Picture 1-50
Source: Janco Associates

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The Facebook Fatigue “Story” is Getting Tired

February 23rd, 2008 | 2 Comments | Posted in Web 2.0

Not sure about you but the whole Facebook Fatigue story is tiring.

Any time there’s a smidgen of evidence that Facebook’s growth is poised to stall or slow, the Facebook Fatigue bandwagon gets rolling again.

Why? Well, I think almost everyone is waiting for Facebook to show signs of weakness because there’s nothing like reporting that the emperor has no clothes. Facebook’s rise has been so meteoric and seemingly so easy that everyone expects/wants the balloon to burst.

An undeniable factor in the Facebook Fatigue campaign is many of the people running with it are fatigued with Facebook - having been on it and written about it for months. Many of these people have already moved off Facebook, and moved on to something else - be it Twitter, Seesmic, podcasting, non-digital interaction with real people. Remember, however, these people are not the mainstream, which is still enthusiastically embracing Facebook as this most excellent tool.

Truth be told, Facebook probably has a few more years of solid user growth before everyone can go to town. At some point, the growth will become more modest, plateau or, heaven forbid, decline. But that won’t mean Facebook is cooked; it will just mean that Facebook has matured into MySpace, which has its fair share of ups and downs (see chart below) that no one writes about that much.

While the number of Facebook users is important, it’s not the most interesting story right now. The story to watch is Facebook’s evolution into a business and its effort to attract advertising to leverage is popularity.

The pressing questions include: Can Facebook’s management team execute at a time when the U.S. economy is poised to go into recession. Is Mark Zuckerberg the right person to lead this strategic charge? Will advertisers really embrace social networks as a platform to reach consumers?

Links: CNet has a story about trouble at Piczo, a social networking site focused on teenage girls. Another good read is a GigaOm post from last July looking at why people get Facebook Fatigue.

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Alert: Bloggers in Frenzy over Apparent Facebook Fatigue!

February 22nd, 2008 | 3 Comments | Posted in Blogs, Web 2.0

All hands on deck, all hands on deck: the blogosphere is threatening to go overboard amid doom and gloom reports the number of Facebook users in the U.S. - gasp! - fell in January by 800K (according to comScore) to 33.9 million users from a month earlier.

Is Facebook officially OVER?

Has Facebook Fatigue finally HAPPENING?

Should Mark Zuckerberg sold Facebook to Yahoo for $1-billion (or $900-million) when he had the CHANCE?

At least Webware’s Caroline McCarthy and CenterNetworks, which brings into question the seasonal nature of Facebook traffic, are staying calm while others ring the alarm bells.

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