Early-Morning, Pre-Hockey Thoughts

By Mark Evans in Apple/iPod, Blogs, M&A 1 Comment

I can’t decide whether to laugh or cry that the Italian government is apparently prepared to introduce a new law that could force call bloggers to register with the state – something that could require them to pay some kind of fee (tax?) even if they’re not a commercial operation. Luca Filigheddu, a well-known Italian blogger, calls it an “absurd” idea. It may stupid but if you hit all those bloggers with a $1/month fee, you could be talking about some serious taxation coin given how many people are jumping on the blog bandwagon. Note to super-cash-strapped city of Toronto politicians: don’t even think about it.

Meanwhile, there’s only one day left before the launch of Leopard. Are you stoked or what? Oh, you’re a Vista/XP user; I guess you’ll be happy to avoid the hype-o-rama, the Steve Jobs Aura and line-ups. If you haven’t already got the scoop on all the new features, the New York Times’ David Pogue covers them off. His assessment: “Leopard is powerful, polished and carefully conceived. Happy surprises, and very few disappointments, lie around every corner. This Leopard has more than 300 new spots — and most of them are bright ones.” The WSJ’s Walter Mossberg also has nice thing to say.

And if anyone wasn’t aware of it already, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg is a multi-billionaire. Funny math ratio for the day: Zuckerberg has a age to billionaire ratio of about 4:1 (four years for every billion dollars he’s worth on paper). If you still need the news on the Facebook-Microsoft deal, the entire blogosphere seemed to write about it. One that grabbed my attention – other than the one I did looking at how much Zuckerberg could be worth – is Epicenter’s contention that Microsoft underpaid for Facebook.

Okay, time to hit the ice. Later.

What’s Mark Zuckerberg Worth?

By Mark Evans in M&A, Web 2.0 6 Comments

I’ll let the rest of the blogosphere focus (obsess?) on Microsoft’s $240-million investment (for a 1.6% stake) in Facebook but assuming the social networking darling now has a whopping, mind-blowing valuation of $15-billion (for some reason, I’m hearing Carl Sagan’s voice right now), how much is Mark Zuckerberg now worth – at least on paper.

For the sake of argument, let’s be aggressive and assume Facebook had a valuation of $500-million to $750-million when it raised $25-million of venture capital in April, 2006. That would have given the VCs a 3% to 5% stake. Let’s assume Zuckerberg owns 60% of Facebook while Harvard pals Andrew McCollum, Dustin Moskowitz and Craig Hughes own 5% each, and employes own another 15%.

That would make Zuckerberg worth about $9-billion. Not quite Larry Page, Sergey Brin rich but it would make him the 73th richest person in the world (alongside media baron Rupert Murdoch) based on the Forbes’ billionaire list. Of course, even if Zuckerberg “only” owns a 40% stake, he’d still be worth $6-billion. Yikes!

For more, check out Silicon Valley Insider while HipMojo suggests Microsoft “is showing some backbone – perhaps foolishly – by not letting Google outbid it”.

Hat to Mathew Ingram, who points out that ValleyWag suggest Zuckerberg’s 30% stake is worth $5-billion. So, I was off a few billion dollars!

The Buzz About OS X vs. Vista’s Woes

By Mark Evans in Apple/iPod, Microsoft 11 Comments

The world is abuzz with the impending release – two days and counting – of Apple’s new operating system, Leopard, which will cap off a mega-year for Apple that has been highlighted by the launch of the iPhone, a refresh of the iPod line-up, and stellar financial results.

Not surprisingly, Apple shares have soared to a record high and the Steve Jobs Aura (SJA) continues to grow.

Amid all this excitement, I’m still puzzled by one thing: why Leopard is seen as the be-all-and-end-all of operating systems while Vista was pretty much dead in the water even before it got out of the gate. I’ve read a bunch of Leopard stories – most of them bubbling with glee about the 300 news features, including Quick Look and Time Machine.

But where’s the objectivity that Leopard may simply be a nice upgrade as update? It seems the media and blogosphere has bought into Apple’s marketing campaign that Leopard is “the biggest update in Mac history” and “one OS so innovative, it will completely transform your Mac”.

Without upsetting the Mac Nation, why will Leopard will such a smash-hit while Vista has been such a disappointment. Maybe expectations are different; maybe Microsoft can do no right while Apple can do no wrong; maybe Apple has done a better job developing its OS upgrade while Microsoft made a strategic mistake by rushing Vista out the door before it was really ready.

At the end of the day, Apple’s biggest asset – at least right now – is the love affair consumers and investors have with the brand. Everyone loves Apple while Microsoft struggles do convince people it can do things right as well. Steve Jobs is seen as a superstar while Steve Ballmer, who’s a very smart guy, is regarded with far less esteem.

Like sports, momentum is everything. Apple’s on a huge roll during which it has rarely stumbled other than perhaps the decision to reduce iPhone prices by $200. Sooner or later, however, momentum has a funny way of changing. At some point, the shine will come off Apple. The challenge facing is figuring out when that’s going to happen.

For a take on how Apple is going to keep its value, check out the New York Times’ Bits.

Update: The Wall St. Journal’s Walter Mossberg has an extensive review on Leopard with this conclusion: “Leopard isn’t a must-have for current Mac owners, but it adds a lot of value. For new Mac buyers, it makes switching even more attractive.”

The Mozilla/Firefox Cash Machine

By Mark Evans in Browsers/Firefox, Google 2 Comments

Firefox-2
It’s amazing how much money that one little [Google] search box within Firefox makes for the Mozilla Foundation.

According to the foundation’s 2006 consolidated financial statements, Mozilla made a cool pre-tax profit of $47.1-million last year compared with $44.7-million in 2005. As impressive is the fact Mozilla has operating margins of 76.5%.

As much as I’m excited about Firefox 3.0, it would also be good to see some of that Google Mozilla money be invested in giving Thunderbird a much-needed kick in the pants. Thunderbird was spun off into a new subsidiary last month but it’s future is far from clear after its only two full-time developers quit.

For more on Mozilla’s financial performance, check out Between the Lines, which does a nice job of breaking out and analyzing the balance sheet. Search Engine Watch, meanwhile, suggests Firefox be re-named Googzilla or GoogleFox.

Picture 3-3

Blog OverLoad, Anyone?

By Mark Evans in Blogs 1 Comment

I recently stumbled upon (actually, Rojo-ed) a post written by Seth Godin in March, 2006 in which he talked about how some of the biggest and most popular blogs were pumping out a huge number of posts a day. In theory, the more you post, the more traffic you generate, which, in theory, should attract more advertising dollars. Right?

The problem, Godin contends, is multiple blog posts also creates digital clutter tha challenges even the most loyal of readers. For anyone who reads Engadget or TechCrunch, it can be difficult sometimes to get to some of the better posts when you’ve got to wade through a bunch of other less compelling material. Another related problem is band-wagon jumping where everyone feels the need to blog about a particular event such as Apple’s fourth-quarter results even if they have little insight to add.

Or as Godin puts it, “the problem is surplus. By writing too much, too often, we’re trouncing on the attention of the commons”.

Although Godin’s post was written more than 18 months ago, he identified one of the blogosphere’s biggest problems/challenges: a platform where you can write as much as you want, and more if you hire a team of writers. What’s happening, as a result, is the blogosphere is starting to splinter into magazines such as TechCrunch while independents scramble to keep up in a race where quantity has begun to rule the day.

The focus – and this is something I think that many bloggers think about or should be considering – is quality, and the need to write well as opposed to writing often or blogging for the sake of blogging. It’s a difficult task because there’s a sense you must blog every day to keep an audience that can leave with just a single click. On the other hand, you can easily lose your audience by writing posts that have little to offer.

Without a doubt, it’s a tough balancing act but one many blogs and bloggers will encounter as the blogosphere’s matures and evolves.

A Nice Shiny Q4 for Apple

By Mark Evans in Apple/iPod No Comments

Apple Q4 numbers – pretty darn impressive.

- 2.16-million Macintosh computers sold – surpassing the previous quarterly record by 400,000 units – as Apple is poised to become the #3 computer seller in the U.S. behind HP and Dell
- 10.2 million iPods sold; 17% year-over-year growth – demonstrating the iPod Phenomena is still alive and well!
- 1.19 million iPhone sales
- $15.4 billion in cash and no debt, which gives Apple some financial flexibility if it wants to get into bed with Google to buy wireless spectrum.

Meanwhile, Apple shares touched a record high of $174.90 today. What were any of us thinking when Apple was trading for $10 in January 2004?

For more, check out Seeking Alpha, which notes that Apple provided stronger-than-expected Q1 guidance on revenue and earnings. TUAW adds that Q4 earnings per share of $1.01 were way above the Wall St. estimate of 82 cents (what do analysts know anyway!) while the 2.16 million Mac sales beat expectations of two million.

Can’t wait to see how investors react on Friday when OS X is released, and thousands of crazed Mac-ites storm retailers.

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