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mesh is Sold Out!

May 22nd, 2007 | 3 Comments | Posted in Aside

I’m happy to report that mesh has sold out in record time. (Well, we beat last year so it’s record compared with that!). The interest in mesh is fantastic for a number of reasons but perhaps the most important is it reflects a hunger to learn what’s happening on the Web, and how it’s changing how we live, work and play. I must admit mesh has been extremely fortunate to attract some amazing speakers, who have been willing to share their time and knowledge at an event with such a short track record. Can’t wait until next week when mesh ‘07 kicks off!

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Firefox’s Growing Pains

May 21st, 2007 | No Comments | Posted in Aside

The New York Times has an interesting article on Firefox, looking at the challenges of managing a business that now has 15% of the browser market and 75 million to 100 million customers/users. One question is how you operate an open-sourced focused entity (working for the public good, encouraging the contributions of volunteers, etc.) when you also have a business that generated more than $50-million of revenue last year?

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Google Hot about FeedBurner?

May 21st, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Google, M&A

Given all the excitement - and acquisitions - about online advertising plays, it should come as little surprise that FeedBurner is apparently in play. According to blogger and Web 2.0 consultant Sam Sethi, the suitor is Google, and the price is a cool $100-million. At a time when there’s so much hype Web 2.0, FeedBurner has not found itself in the eye of the hurricane. Instead, it’s embraced a solid strategic approach that has seen it become the leading provider of RSS publishing tools as well as one of the leading advertising networks for RSS feeds. As VentureWire writes, FeedBurner has also been a long-rumoured takeover candidate so the Google rumors could be nothing. But given the heat surrounding the online ad market, you have to believe where there’s smoke, there’s probably fire.

Personally, I’d like to see FeedBurner stay out of the grasp of Google, Microsoft, News Corp., etc. given it’s playing such an important role in promoting RSS as a publishing and advertising tool. To become engulfed within a Web giant would certainly give FeedBurner more financial clout but the company’s cache and maybe its raison d’etre could fade if its independence disappears. Wouldn’t be it more interesting if FeedBurner raised some venture capital to build a little Web 2.0 powerhouse by acquiring Technorati or Sphere? It’s unlikely this will happen give the big M&A money being thrown around but it’s an interesting idea.

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MySpace.ca, Anyone?

May 20th, 2007 | 4 Comments | Posted in Aside

MySpace has moved into Canada but not using myspace.ca, which is the personal blog of Ali Atif. I wonder how many Rupert Murdoch dollars it will take to encourage Atif to move along?

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The Chronicle’s 25% Solution

May 20th, 2007 | 7 Comments | Posted in Media

Everyone knows newspapers are struggling to deal with lower circulation and advertising revenue but the San Francisco Chronicle’s decision to slash 25% of its staff within a few months is eye-opening news. While this move will likely incite more concerns that newspapers are dying a death of a thousand cuts, the most interesting - and troubling - aspect is Chronicle publisher Frank Vega’s admission the success of the newspapers’s Web site, SFGate.com, is coming nowhere close to offsetting the money being lost on the print side of the house. Reflections of a Newsosaur suggests the job cuts will save the newspaper $8-million a year compared with first-quarter losses of $25-million.

 A big part of the problem is that online ad revenue isn’t as lucrative as newspaper advertising, which has been falling as online rivals such as Craigslist and, most recently, Facebook carve out more business in the lucrative classified and display ad markets. The question is whether the Chronicle’s troubles reflect the industry’s woes or whether it has more to do with the fact tech-savvy San Franciscans are getting their news online these days.

So what do newspapers do to survive other than cutting employees while making the remaining employees work harder by having them write for the newspaper and the Web, as well do podcasts and blogs. The Toronto Star, for example, has decided to drive even deeper into local coveage - a pragmatic move given the Web still doesn’t do local well, including local search. On May 28, the Star will launch an improved - and physically slimmer - local section featuring new type and a focus on Toronto news. It will also put more local news on the front pages of the paper. To its credit, the Star also has an aggressive online unit, including a new social networking/recommendation service called Our Faves.

It’s left to be seen whether local - or a strong Web presence - will save the day for newspapers. My own faith in newspapers is being tested when I look at how my own reading behaviour is changing. I used to love getting the three Saturday papers - the Toronto Star, Globe & Mail and National Post - because there were hours of good, coffee-fueled reading to be done. But recently, I’ve quickly cruised through the papers after reading just a handful of stories. How come? I think it may have to do with the fact I read so much news online that when it comes to newspapers, I don’t want news. Instead, I want context and perspective in tight, well-written packages. (Of course, this doesn’t apply to the Sunday New York Times,  which still ranks among the best newspaper reads anywhere).

My sense is most newspapers are doing the best they can to adapt to the new readership and advertising landscape but still finding the going tough. At the end of the day, newspapers won’t disappear but they will be smaller operations employing fewer people and covering fewer stories. This isn’t a sad development. It just reflects how the world is changing. And it doesn’t mean consumers won’t be able to find the news, even local news. For Toronto news, I’m getting more of my news from places such as Spacing Wire.

For more, check out Recovering Journalist, who rightly wonders why a big newspaper chain hasn’t stepped up to buy an online advertising company such as DoubleClick or aQuantive.

“Good question,” he said. “It would have been a very smart acquisition, a real bet on the future. The technology companies seem to have that vision. The newspaper companies apparently don’t.”

Meanwhile, Signal to Noise advocates the future of newspapers is “hyperlocalism”. “This is the demand for community-oriented news that can’t be gotten anywhere  besides a local source that lives and breathes within the community it serves.”

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Facebook Update

May 19th, 2007 | 3 Comments | Posted in Aside

I’ve 15 Facebook friends, and an invitation to join a group called “My Yoga Instructor is Hot”. Question: Is MySpace relevant any more other than a place for bands to make their music available? Has Mark Zuckerman outmaneuvered Rupert Murdoch? Okay, that was two questions but they gotta be asked!

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Do Click-Throughs Really Matter?

May 19th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Advertising/Marketing, Google

With the online advertising market growing by leaps and bounds - although still only 5% of total ad spending - there’s lot of discussion about how advertisers measure success. Is it click-throughs? Is it measured by purchases, the amount of information collected or downloads of white papers, etc.? According to the Journal of Consumer Research (hat tip Ars Techica), the most important thing for advertisers is exposure and ads that make a consumer feel good about a brand or product. If that’s the case, do click-throughs matter? If not, then there’s little to worry about click-through rates of 2% to 3% if you’re really lucky. Perhaps the power of online advertising is just being there and offering creative that resonates with consumers. This would suggest branding - not actions such as purchasing or filling out forms - is the goal for advertisers. It’s an interesting theory that could change how many advertisers approach online spending.

An interesting to way to test this theory is putting it up against AdSense, which is all about click-through so consumers can do something - be it gather more information, make a purchase, etc. Using targeted advertising and a pay-as-you-go formula, Google has created an easy way for advertisers to venture online in a way where they can measure their success (click-throughs) while controlling their spending. The question is whether AdSense works beyond the click? Many advertisers must believe the ROI is healthy otherwise the Google cash machine wouldn’t exist. I would also argue AdSense thrives because it’s the only way many companies, especially smaller ones with modest budgets. can do targeted advertising. In many ways, AdSense is Online Advertising for Dummies because it’s simple, popular, and apparently works. For advertisers who want to move up the food chain, banner ads play a big role. And if the Journal of Consumer Research is correct, there may be a whole new way to measure ROI and success.

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M&A Musical Chairs

May 18th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in M&A, Microsoft

After being outmaneuvered/outbid by Google for DoubleClick a few weeks ago, Microsoft has decided to use a portion of its mountain of cash - $6-billion to be exact - to purchase online advertising firm aQuantive. It’s the largest acquisition ever made by Microsoft, and clearly reflects a couple things: the growing bullishness about the online advertising market, and Microsoft’s desperation to grab a seat before this multi-billion dollar game of musical chairs comes to an end.

I don’t know too much about aQuantive other than it’s an excellent day to be a shareholder given Microsoft’s $66.50 a share offer is a staggering 85% premium over aQuantive’s closing price of $35.87 yesterday. Microsoft and aQuantive said they have “very complementary technologies”, which they better have in spades given Microsoft is spending some serious cash on the deal. aQuantive expected to have sales of $390-million to $405-million for 2007 - giving the deal a purchase price to rich sales multiple of about 15 times.

The acquisition comes in the wake of Google’s $3.1-billion purchase of DoubleClick and WPP Group’s $649-million deal for 24/7 Real Media Inc. With the online ad market so hot, it’s just a matter of time before the next deal emerges. If you own an online advertising firm or own shares in one such as ValueClick, it looks like you’re holding some sweet lottery tickets right now. For other views, check out Mathew Ingram, who suggests the deal reminds him of the optical-networking buying frenzy of the late-1990s.

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FM Radio’s Staying Power

May 17th, 2007 | 3 Comments | Posted in Media

Amid all the doom and gloom surrounding the future of the newspaper, magazine and television industries, it’s fascinating to see how the commercial radio market continues to thrive in Canada. According to the CRTC, revenue hit a record $1.4-billion in 2006 (with $1.1-billion flowing to FM stations), while profit margins remained healthy at 20%. This explains why there has been so much M&A activity in the market.

The question that begs to be asked is how radio has continued to thrive while many of its mainstream media peers have suffered. It could be because radio is a very local medium so it’s been able to fend off the online hordes. After all, if you want to know what’s happened to the local sports team or at city hall or the traffic, radio is a default for many people. Given how well this focus has worked for radio, it’s interested to see how long it has taken newspapers to embrace the same approach. The Toronto Star, for example, recently decided it was going to emphasize local coverage, highlighted by a concerted effort to have a big Toronto-focused story on the front page every day.

It has also been interesting to see commercial radio in Canada do well despite the launch of satellite radio, which increasingly look to be a niche service for road warriors and cottage owners looking for more than just than the CBC (Canada’s version of NPR) and local rock station during their weekend getaways. For all the talk about satellite radio being such a great experience, it doesn’t do local well, if at all. And with more people using their iPods to get commercial-free music, satellite-radio’s appeal is pretty limited.

For more thoughts on Canada’s radio market, check out Inside the CBC.

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Hurray for TheGoodBlogs

May 16th, 2007 | No Comments | Posted in Aside

TheGoodBlogs, which is a really cool blog discovery tool/widget, has just stormed through the 1,000-blogger barrier. Congrats to Tony and Vern - hopefully, this is just the start of hyper-growth!

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