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Learn Anything, Blackberry Users?

April 19th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Aside

Now that the Blackberry service has come back to life, do you think any Crackberry users used the time to reflect on their obsession with checking for new e-mail every other minute? Do you think that during the outrage people used their Blackberry-free time to do other things like, well, talk to people, read the newspaper, take in the scenery, drive better, pay attention during meetings, etc.? Probably not but there’s no harm thinking there was a silver lining to not having Blackberry service.

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The Value of Discovery

April 19th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in M&A, Web 2.0

So why is StumbleUpon worth $40-million even though its just a small browser extension with a still-emerging business model? It’s all about discovery. At its very best, the Web is about discovering new information, Web sites, music, etc. but as the Web becomes increasingly mainstream, discovery becomes more of a challenge as the big brands and big money establish themselves. So along comes StumbleUpon with a tool that lets you discover cool Web sites - and video - based on what other people like. Voila, you’ve got a hit and a multi-million takeout target on your hands. StumbleUpon’s cache is a lot like the excitement over music services such as Pandora and Last FM, which let people stumble upon new music. If I was excited about what’s next on the Web, it’s not social networks and places such as Facebook, it’s discovery.
More: In some ways, the Web was a lot more interesting seven or eight years ago before everyone jumped on the bandwagon. Back then, you have a bunch of new, first-movers trying to figure out how the Web worked and whether it would ever become a mainstream tool. Since there were far fewer Web sites around, it was easier to find different kind of sites. Not that I long for those days when I suffered through dial-up service but it was a different world back then.

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eBay Stumbles on StumbleUpon

April 18th, 2007 | 6 Comments | Posted in Google, M&A

Stumble
Another cool Web 2.0 gets suck into the M&A vortex as eBay has apparently acquired StumbleUpon, one of the most useful discovery services around, for $40-million to $45-million. First blush, I don’t get it but, then again, I didn’t get eBay acquiring Skype so what do I know. Om Malik suggests eBay could turn jump-start Skype by bolting on StumbleUpon’s toolbar, which lets you kill hours of time online by randomly looking at new Web sites.

By marrying the toolbar to Skype client, eBay can do an end run around Google’s dominance of the search business,” Om writes. “A simple search box inside Skype client is all it would take. It is not that far fetched: Skype has been slowly integrating various different services (including PayPal) into its client, and slowly becoming eBay’s desktop backdoor. Now this is just a hypothesis, and I would love to hear what you folks have to say about the logic behind this deal.

Not sure that I agree with Om’s theory but I do know this is a huge score for StumbleUpon’s investors who sunk $1.5-million into the start-up. (These investors include Google advisor Rajeev Motwani, Google advisor; Ram Shriram, an early Google investor and a board member; and Lotus founder Mitch Kapoor.) StumbleUpon’s acquisition is yet another indictment on the Canadian venture capital community’s unwillingness to finance Web start-ups given the company started in Calgary but moved to Silicon Valley after failing to attract any financing north of the border - not even some of the oil bucks flowing around Alberta these days.

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Kravis Coming to Canada

April 18th, 2007 | No Comments | Posted in Aside

By the time Henry Kravis delivers his keynote speech at the Canadian Venture Capital & Private Equity Association’s annual conference in late-May, he - or at least his firm, Kravis Kohlberg & Roberts - could own BCE Inc. By the way, the topic of his keynote is: ‘Current State of the Private Equity Business’.

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Still Don’t Get BCE LBO

April 18th, 2007 | 4 Comments | Posted in M&A, Telecom Acquisitions, Financing

Maybe I’m missing something here but I still don’t get the bidding war for BCE Inc. (aka Bell Canada) now being orchestrated by BCE senior management. So, what you’ve got a low-growth telecom carrier scrambling to jump-start its financial prospects (mostly through cut-cutting) in an increasingly competitive marketplace…and apparently several private-equity players willing to cough up $30-billion +. And if a deal goes through, the new owner will be saddled with a pile of debt and a highly-leveraged balance sheet, which could stifle BCE’s ability to make the investments needed to compete against aggressive cable rivals such as Videotron, Rogers and Cogeco.

I’m not a number-cruncher but let’s take a look at BCE’s business units:
- local telephone: more competition from cablecos who are using television and local phones as key tools within bundles, while Bell struggles to get IP-TV out the door.
- wireless: the market has lots of room for growth so that’s a positive for Bell Mobility. But the business has been struggling in recent years amid billing woes and management turnover. Now, it looks like a new rival will enter the scene with Quebecor’s announcement yesterday to do business in Quebec.
- satellite-TV: low growth with revenue driven mostly by price increases.
- high-speed Internet: modest growth with penetration rates now above 50%. Again, most growth driven by prices increases.
- enterprise: extremely competitive marketplace with lots of players (Allstream, Rogers, Telus) driving hard for business.

Given BCE has already slashed thousands of jobs, what are potential buyers focused on? Are there plans to slash thousands more jobs? Or do they think spinning off assets such as Bell Mobility and ExpressVu will unlock oodles of value? One thing to keep amid all this M&A frenzy is mind is how much money there is to be made by investment banks involved in any deals. This explains why there’s so much interest in the future of Telus, Shaw and Quebecor. It’s all about the money, baby.

Update: Jim Courtney provides some nice insight into Bell’s various business units - in many ways supporting my “I Don’t Get It” theory.

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Time to Roll, Google

April 18th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Aside

Ah, nothing like a Google announcement at a high-profile event to get the blogosphere all agog. This time, it’s a new presentation service that will be launched this summer following the purchase of Tonic Systems. With Google soon to have e-mail, word processing, spreadsheets and presentation services, they just have to make them work seamlessly together and convince large companies to embrace Web 2.0, and you’ve got a Microsoft Office killer…or maybe not. In any event, it should be a fun bun fight. Note: Here’s an interview with Google CEO Eric Schmidt at Google Presentations. By the way anyone else, curious about why Google announced Presentations now but it won’t be available for another few months?

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More Wireless Competition in Canada!

April 17th, 2007 | 4 Comments | Posted in Wireless

Could there be real competition again within Canada’s wireless industry - a.k.a the land of disciplined pricing and an obsession with ARPU? It looks pretty good now that Quebecor Inc. has signaled its intentions to get into the wireless business by bidding on spectrum so it can build a 3G network in Quebec. Not content to simply unveil Quebecor’s wireless plans, CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau Canada lags the U.S. and much of Europe in wireless adoption largely due to a lack of competition. “There is a flagrant lack of competition in this sector”.

Of course, this comment drew a rebuke from Rogers CEO Ted Rogers, who said “Canada has some of the lowest rates in the world and we are one of the top countries in the world for wireless usage. Statistics and arguments to the contrary are being manipulated by those who want the government to give them favours when they build a wireless network - favours that Rogers never received.” Hmm, those sounds like fighting words. By the way, anyone expecting Shaw to get into the wireless business will be disappointed. Last week, the Calgary-based cableco said the return on investment prospects didn’t look attractive enough.

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Who Gets Rich from Blogging?

April 17th, 2007 | 2 Comments | Posted in Aside

The answer, sadly, is few people make decent (or even half decent) money from blogging. I only know one person, Darren Rowse (aka Mr. Problogger), who still finds its amazing that he makes a living from blogging. The rest of us, meanwhile, pound away to daily coffee money. Here’s a story from the Boston Globe on making money from blogging.

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Goodbye Webcasting

April 17th, 2007 | 1 Comment | Posted in Music

Well, it was nice while it lasted. The streaming music industry, which had done so much to expose people to new artists, will likely shrink in a big and sad way after a U.S. judge rejected complaints that new Webcasting royalty rates were too high. This means Webcasters must file an appeal with the Appeals Court and Congress if they want these RIAA-supported rules to change.

So what can Webcasters do to stay in business other than coughing up more dough? Maybe they should move to Canada where we don’t have hard and fast rules yet when it comes to slapping industry–killing royalty rates on an emerging industry. In a recent Toronto Star column, Michael Geist, Canada Research Chair of Internet and E-commerce Law at the University of Ottawa contends there may be a way for Webcasters to work within the rules to operate fairly inexpensively in Canada or, at least, with lower financial burdens than in the U.S.

Of course, this entire royalty issue is preposterous because it’s yet another example of how the music industry is happy to cut off its nose to spite its face. The industry is so obsessed with getting its money that it’s forgot that giving consumers discovery tools is the way to encourage people to buy more music. If you take away these discovery tools, you’re forcing them to rely on the Clear Channels of the world, which is like eating tofu when you want steak.

For more, check out Beta News, which offers up more details about the decision and how much Webcasters will have to pay, and Olga Kharif, who asks “The Death of Web Radio?”.

Update: If you interested in saving Internet radio, check out this petition.

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comScore Pokes Stick at Stats

April 16th, 2007 | 4 Comments | Posted in Aside

Cookies
One of the issues raging within the online world is the accuracy of statistics. There are so many ways to slice and dice the numbers, that it’s difficult to know whether any of them are on the mark. (See my Apples vs. Oranges vs. Plums vs. Pears post). comScore, which makes its living from providing online statistics, wades into the debate today with a study/marketing brochure looking at whether cookies are a valid tool to measure unique visitors to Web sites or the number of unique visitors that were served an ad by an ad server. comScore “discovered” that Web site server logs that use first-party cookies (which are left on a computer after it visits a Web site) can exaggerate the number of unique visitors by as much as 2.5X (or 150%). Question #1: what is comScore suggesting: that cookies are a bad way to measure unique visitors, or that anyone not using comScore’s service is making a mistake?

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