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Has Blogging Peaked?

March 11, 2007 BY Mark Evans

You knew it was only a matter of time before a mainstream media organization got one of its reporters to write a story that blogging is a fad, and all will be right again. Well, here is it – compliments of Cox News Service, which picked the SXSW conference as the news peg. According to the story, thousands of blogs are being abandoned as people lose interest. Technorati’s Dave Sifry is quoted as saying that he expects the number of blogs to peak at 100 million before they level off to 30 million eventually. Meanwhile, Gartner is cited as suggesting there are 200 million abandoned blogs in cyberspace, and that 2007 will be the year blogging peaked.

Interesting stuff. My initial reaction was “well, that’s bullshit” but, upon reflection, maybe it’s true and maybe the consolidation of the blogosphere is a good thing. What? How can a blog network executive be content with the idea of his industry shrinking? Don’t get me wrong, blogging is a wonderful communications medium that has shaken up the media landscape. The barriers to entry are low, and anyone can be a published writer within minutes. Because it’s so easy to become a blogger, millions of people have become bloggers but have little or nothing insightful to say. That’s not a bad thing but it’s like going to a hot dance club only to find the place is jammed with people just standing around or just shuffling their feet and thinking they’re dancing.

The other thing about blogging, which often receives little attention, is it’s hard work. It’s easy to write on a regular basis but writing insightful and/or interesting posts is hard work and time-consuming. If you want to blog well, you’ll got to make a serious investment in the process. That’s why politicians, business executives, rock stars, athletes and celebrities don’t blog or don’t blog well. It also explains why many blogs are started with a rush of enthusiasm and excitement only to be abandoned a few days, weeks or months later. Meanwhile, many blogs are orphaned because bloggers move on to other projects. (Personally, I’ve got three blogs that have fallen off the wayside in the past year while I continue to write three on a regular basis).

The consolidation of the blogosphere could be a positive thing because it will provide more liebesraum for blogs that are well written but struggling for attention or more attention. Truth be told, too many bloggers are going through the motions because they want to participate in the conversation. But you can tell they’re not really into it. The telltale signs are blogs that aren’t regularly updated, blog “posts” that consist of a single, sentence and a highlighted paragraph or two from another blog or a news story, and posts that provide no insight, comment or personal flair. While I’m not aiming to be too critical, the blogosphere would be better off if many of these blogs disappeared.

The reality is the blogosphere is already starting to evolve. Just as everyone rushed to publish a newsletter 200 years ago in Europe, blogging has suddenly been the thing to do. But after the initial euphoria, reality and life come into play. One thing I’m seeing is that more good bloggers and high-quality writers want to get paid for their work. They’re no longer content to just attract an audience or build their brands or participate in the conversation; good bloggers are looking at blogs as part-time or full-time jobs and, as a result, want to be shown the money.

None of these developments – abandoned blogs, fewer blogs, professional blogs – should be seen a bad thing. Instead, it shows the blogosphere is quickly growing up.

Fore more thoughts on whether blogs are a fad (or not), check out JS Media Blog and this excellent post written in December 2005 by Below the Fold, which really gets to the heart of blogs and blogging. Another take on the “evolution” of blogger is Twitter, which has become all the rage in the past couple of weeks – much like Mybloglog had its moment in the sun shortly before it was acquired by Yahoo. So what is Twitter? It’s been described as a micro-blog that lets people know what you’re doing and where you are at any given moment. To be honest, it sounds way to Big Brother-ish for me.

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  • http://www.reputrack.com Joseph Fiore

    Mark

    I read a similar news item recently, and many of the points you raise also ran through my mind at the time.

    And to add to some of the points you made, I’m of the view that blogging is here to stay. I also look at it is having matured significantly in just the past few years.

    The main indicator for maturity is this aspect of citizen journalism. Sites like digitaljournal.com (DJ) have really allowed blogging a whole new level of universality, reliability and audience reach.

    And much like DJ, sites like MySpace which include a Blog component in addition to profile, forum, group and video publishing, there is this idea of promoting ideas and opinion within a community. An aspect which in the case of DJ, promotes a self-regulating mechanism within the community of contributors, forcing reliability of information, facts, and ensures there is little or no duplication of effort in terms of topic coverage.

    For all the critics who are quick to point out the aspect of abandonment and make the leap that its a fad, and will eventually die out, I say to them that there is still some value in old blog posts which linger as I do find myself getting visitors who continue to comment on posts I made months and sometimes even years ago.

    After my blog got attacked by spammers one of my blogs, I had to close comments, and deactivate the trackback function. Admittedly, I haven’t yet got around to upgrading the blog software. This has definitely had an impact on my motivation to post with any degree of regularity.

    And even though some blog sites aren’t updated as regularly, I guess as long as someone finds value in the opinion you’ve posted, no matter how old, as an alternative broadcast medium, its still beats any sanitized and politically correct opinion from being forced down our throats by the mainstream.

  • http://passtheremote.wordpress.com/ Eric

    I think that 2007 will only be the peak of the first wave of early adopters (western world) to use blogs as a new way to inform. Once Asia get massively on board we will probably see a renaissance of the blogging spirit. Unless something better comes along.

  • http://www.balez.ca/mat Mat

    I think this piece is right on the money. Consolidation in the blogosphere will be a good thing for everybody, a sign of maturation I think.

    In pointing out that most blogs say nothing, you really are calling out the emperor about his lack of clothes. This kind of criticism is much needed, and very lacking as far as I’m concerned.

    It is sad to see even some of the big blogging outlets wane in the richness of their discourse. Take this recent debate about “coffee vs tea” over at GigaOm’s WWD for instance: http://webworkerdaily.com/2007/03/10/tea-vs-coffee/

    Finally, I think the blogosphere provides relatively poor discovery mechanisms. How to have the better content float up to the top? Especially when it’s from relatively unknown bloggers — their “unknowness” is in no way a comment on the potential quality of their content, so how to help get it seen??

    PS – Mark, Why did you link to Mitch Joel’s Twitter page, or do I misunderstand? Was this piece penned by Mitch (I can’t tell, since it appears to be unsigned)?

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  • http://joeduck.wordpress.com Joe Duck

    Hey, excellent to use a newsletter analogy. Printing, and then super easy desktop publishing brought a *lot* of newsletters but I presume these levelled off as you ran out of people with axes to grind or significant things to say. Obviously blogging will surpass this, but I’m noting how many people I know have little interest if any in blogging – it would be a chore for them.

  • http://palmdiscovery.net May C

    I agree with the comment that blogging is here to stay, for those who continue to stick with it and push out the material on a consistent basis. It’s true that a lot of bloggers originally thought it was “in” or cool to blog since practically everyone was doing it, but quickly lost touch when they figured no one was reading or they got tired of having to blog and it wasn’t fun anymore.

    Blogging and blog sites have become mainstream in a big way. Take a look at a lot of big sites like Engadget, Slashdot, Techcrunch and others. A lot of us rely on these blogs to provide us with almost immediate news of new releases and rumors, before the press or mainstream media (especially magazines) are even printed. Just look at how many magazines have folded over the past year and you can see how the landscape has changed.

    Just like the internet has changed how we get our information, blogs have now also provided us with news in a very timely way.

    Blogging is here to stay, for those of us who think we have something important to share and are willing to keep plugging away at it. It’s true that a lot of blogs are abandoned as I’ve subsribed to many that just drop off in posts entirely without any notice. A shame.

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  • http://www.markevanstech.com Mark Evans

    Joe: Good point. Blogging is an investment that requires a commitment of time and effort, so it’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

    Mat: I didn’t intend to link to Mitch’s post. I was doing some cut and pasting using the WP editor, and left a couple of unwanted paragraphs there by mistake.

  • http://www.inter-canel.com Shaun Rotman

    Mark,

    Your comments are much understood and, recently, overwhelmingly common.

    Before I even reached the end of this post I was already thinking of Twitter, glad you thought the same. This may be the first peak in the blogosphere, but it is far from the end in my opinion. New approaches to mass media and social media while continue to pop up here and there and some with thrive to become the next Blogger or WordPress.

    While the number of adopters may decrease, there will never be a lack of those who wish to blog for personal reasons. Even as “professional” bloggers, such as yourself, continue to blog, there will be those who wish to comment and criticize on their own “turf” and their own blog is a perfect location.

    Regarding your comment about professional bloggers wanting to get paid I have only this to say: “Have you ever proof read your posts?!”

    I understand people want to see some return on their investment of time and whatnot, but quality posts are not limited to merely insightful material. You would also expect some level of “professionalism” in your posts as well. Have another read at this post, for example, and note the grammar and spelling mistakes.

    You’re only human… but so are all the other “non-professional” bloggers.

  • http://jsmedia.wordpress.com Judy/JS Media

    Thanks for your comment on my post and the mention of the JS Media blog here. I have to agree with your point of view. Your post is an insightful look at the blogging-o-sphere. I like the way you end on a note of the importance of the small voice. As they say in traditional journalism: MORE TK. Thanks again, Judy/JS Media.

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  • http://www.markevanstech.com Mark Evans

    Shaun,
    Thank for the proof-reading tip..:) That’s what you get for trying to write early morning posts before the coffee kicks in.

  • http://northxeast.com Collis

    Interesting post, I think that as the Technorati exec says blogging will peak in terms of sheer number of blogs but level out at a higher overall level of quality. People start blogs not realising how much work or how difficult it is, but you only need to learn this lesson once and as the general public starts to realise its not quite that easy we’ll get less joyriders jumping in and more serious contenders entering the market.

    I think also a corollary to what you are saying about people wanting to get paid is we’ll see the rise of a more commercial approach. This has already started with the big blogs and blogging network. Eventually it will be big business I think.

  • http://www.3walim.com منتديات

    maybe its
    so?
    I agree blog is will stay here as I widh too

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