Mark Evans

Too Early to Grade eBay-Skype Deal

Has it already been more than a year since eBay decided to cough up as much as $4.2-billion for Skype? The International Herald Tribune takes a look at the deal and how Skype has evolved within the eBay empire. So did eBay get suckered into making a pre-emptive bid ahead of rival suitors such as Google, or did eBay made a savvy move by acquiring the world's leading VoIP player? So far, there has been little indication eBay has been able to do anything with Skype strategically other than giving sellers the option of putting "Skype Me" buttons on their stores. On the other hand, Skype as a telecom service provider is showing promise as a standalone business. In the past year, the number of registered Skype users has more than doubled to 136 million, while Skype's revenue is expected to more than triple this year to $195-million from $60-million in 2005. But is that enough to justify spending $4.2-billion? The answer - and apologies for being so wishy-washy - is only time will tell. But let's conservatively assume Skype's sales see compound growth 25% over the next five years. This would result in sales of $675-million by 2011 with healthy profit margins. That's a pretty good business. Let's also assume eBay can use Skype to get into the pay-per-call market, which the Kelsey Group forecasts will become a $1.4-billion to $4-billion business by 2009. Assuming Skype captures 10% of the PPC market, that would be another $140-million to $400-million of sales - boosting Skype's total revenue to $810-million to $1.1-billion. Again, that's a pretty good business. Of course, the $4.2-billion price-tag will always be used as a benchmark on how the deal is "valued". But if Skype grows as expected, its acquisition may look like a pretty good move in five years. Tags: eBay, Skype, VOIP, M&A