http://www.markevanstech.com/2006/08/11/to-gsm-or-not-gsm-that-is-the-question/ Insight and Analysis from North of the Border Sat, 22 Nov 2008 19:16:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 http://www.markevanstech.com/2006/08/11/to-gsm-or-not-gsm-that-is-the-question/#comment-1701 Ross Fri, 11 Aug 2006 15:43:50 +0000 http://markevanstech.com/?p=1691#comment-1701 Analysts and been predicting the demise of CDMA networks for many years now. The claims, primarily based on scale issues and roaming restrictions, provide logical arguments for the advantages of GSM over CDMA. On the other hand, continued efforts by 3GPP2 (CDMA 3G standards organization) at 'harmonizing' some elements with GSM/UMTS, and recent growth in Chinese vendor production of dual mode handsets, is working to mitigate these advantages. As a result, CDMA has continued to play into the future of plans of operators like China Unicom and Verizon. Regardless, the continuing marginalization of CDMA technology will put pressure on CDMA operators to explore alternatives, but changing out a network is not something that is done overnight. Although GSM technology and networks will be around for a very long time, at this point in the life cycle of this technology one has to wonder if it would be more prudent to focus on a 'next generation' option to leap frog the competition, as opposed to spending a billion dollars to become a 'me too' competitor. Meanwhile, the competition could be moving onto the next game. One final note, in addition to watching the direction taken by dominant North American players like Verizon, it is worth watching the Chinese market. China still hasn't made a major commitment to 3G technologies, having just formally confirmed TD-SCDMA as their 3G standard this year. Consider that the largest mobile vendor in the world is not Verizon, or even Vodafone - it is China Telecom. Increasingly China, and Asia, will influence technology economics and direction. Analysts and been predicting the demise of CDMA networks for many years now. The claims, primarily based on scale issues and roaming restrictions, provide logical arguments for the advantages of GSM over CDMA. On the other hand, continued efforts by 3GPP2 (CDMA 3G standards organization) at 'harmonizing' some elements with GSM/UMTS, and recent growth in Chinese vendor production of dual mode handsets, is working to mitigate these advantages. As a result, CDMA has continued to play into the future of plans of operators like China Unicom and Verizon.
Regardless, the continuing marginalization of CDMA technology will put pressure on CDMA operators to explore alternatives, but changing out a network is not something that is done overnight. Although GSM technology and networks will be around for a very long time, at this point in the life cycle of this technology one has to wonder if it would be more prudent to focus on a 'next generation' option to leap frog the competition, as opposed to spending a billion dollars to become a 'me too' competitor. Meanwhile, the competition could be moving onto the next game.
One final note, in addition to watching the direction taken by dominant North American players like Verizon, it is worth watching the Chinese market. China still hasn't made a major commitment to 3G technologies, having just formally confirmed TD-SCDMA as their 3G standard this year. Consider that the largest mobile vendor in the world is not Verizon, or even Vodafone - it is China Telecom. Increasingly China, and Asia, will influence technology economics and direction.

]]> http://www.markevanstech.com/2006/08/11/to-gsm-or-not-gsm-that-is-the-question/#comment-1700 Doug C Fri, 11 Aug 2006 14:37:40 +0000 http://markevanstech.com/?p=1691#comment-1700 While Sprint's WiMAX endorsement is very good news for WiMAX and for Inukshuk, the early benefit may be greater for Bell than Rogers. Motorola is to provide Sprint with dual mode CDMA-WiMAX phones, and Bell will be the only Canadian carrier with access to national CDMA and WiMAX (via Inukshuk) networks. Of course dual-mode GSM-WiMAX phones will also be under development, but the Sprint endorsement puts dual-mode CDMA-WiMAX handsets on a fast-track. While Sprint's WiMAX endorsement is very good news for WiMAX and for Inukshuk, the early benefit may be greater for Bell than Rogers. Motorola is to provide Sprint with dual mode CDMA-WiMAX phones, and Bell will be the only Canadian carrier with access to national CDMA and WiMAX (via Inukshuk) networks. Of course dual-mode GSM-WiMAX phones will also be under development, but the Sprint endorsement puts dual-mode CDMA-WiMAX handsets on a fast-track.

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