Is Vonage a "Buy" Now?
At $17 a share, Vonage was over-priced and anyone who bought into the IPO was a fool. But what about now? Is it time to buy some Vonage shares given they have dropped 25% to $11.79? If you buy into the idea that everything can be sold at the right price, maybe Vonage has hit a level where it makes sense to take a look. BusinessWeek's Timothy Mullaney has a good story - “Vonage - A Screaming Buy?” - that examines why some analysts are bullish on Vonage. The story focuses on American Technology Research analyst Albert Lin, who believes Vonage is a “buy”. Why? Lin thinks Vonage could be profitable by 2009 and have 8M to 10M customers. Of course, his bullishness is also based on the belief prices and Vonage's churn will be stable - two big ifs. If Vonage shares continue to tumble, it may become more tempting to take a flyer. A pragmatic investor, however, may want to wait to see how Vonage performs financially over the next few quarters and how the competitive landscape evolves. It could be Vonage continues to post large losses as its spends $300M to $350M on marketing this year to attract and retain subscribers. This may make investors even more skittish - and perhaps create a buying opportunity for investors with a healthy appetite for risk.
Update: The Washington Post has a story that suggests Vonage co-founder Jeff Citron has made a paper profit of six times his original $81.5-million investment. Citron and Vonage's other early investors can start selling their shares on Nov. 21. Citron, by the way, will be making a keynote speech at the Canadian Telecom Summit on June 12 in Toronto. You wonder if any investors who have sued Vonage will given Citron a piece of their mind.
June 9th, 2006 at 9:55 am
What about the customers they will lose who bought shares and lost their shirts. Very little barrier for these customers to switch. And an unhappy customer will tell 10 people, while a happy one might tell 1-2 - ads or no ads.
June 9th, 2006 at 3:02 pm
I still don't see Vonage as a good buy because the VoIP market is so volatile and heavily competitive. Vonage will probably start losing business to established competitors who are still offering lower rates, like SunRocket.