Ever wondered about Vonage Canada's subscriber base? I've asked senior management on a regular basis for a number – even a ballpark number – but got nowhere. The answer, I think, is about 52,000, which is much higher than anyone estimated given the scuttlebutt was 15,000 to 20,000. So where does the 52,000 figure come from? Well, if you read through to the end of Vonage's S-1 filing, the company breaks out its Canadian and U.K.sales. In the first-quarter, Canadian sales were $4.25-million. You divide that number by Vonage's average revenue per subscriber ($27 a month X three months) and, voila, 52,000 customers. One thing that is a bit of a puzzler is it appears Vonage Canada has had tremendous momentum in the last quarter or two because sales for all of last year were US$7.6-million, which works out to about 23,000 subscribers using the $27 ARPU figure x 12 months.
Update: My Financial Post story on Vonage's first day of trading can be found here. The Streetcom's Jim Kramer has a rant about Vonage, in which he concludes it is a “piece of junk”.
Update II: Vonage shares down another 11% today to $13.17, which means it has lost 23% from the IPO price, or a cool $575-million. closed down $1.85 to $13 so the value of the company has dropped by $588-million in two days. Yikes! Buying opportunity or dead dog?

Update III: Vonage shares closed down $2.15 at $14.85 on volume of 33.8 million shares.
Update II: Vonage shares have dropped by $2.50 to $14.50 in active trading – perhaps justifying the views of critics who questioned how a money-losing compoany in an ultra competitive business could value itself at $2.5-billion. Still, it is surprisingly to see Vonage tumble so much given investment bankers are supposed to “leave money on the table” for IPO investors.

So the Vonage IPO has been priced at $17 a share, which will bring in IPO proceeds of  $531-million. Any bets on where this baby closes after its first day on the NYSE? My guess is up, way up as retail investors pile into the game. After that, it really hinges on Vonage's quarterly results over the next year. If the company's expensive marketing bonanza isn't offset by strong gains in subscribers, watch out! If, however, Vonage's financials show signs of improvement, it could incite investors to jump onboard. That said, Vonage is facing intense competition from cablecos, carriers, Skype, etc.. This means it can't pull back on the marketing engine to boost the bottom line. At the end of the day, the corporate “strategy” may be to attract enough customers to solicit a takeover bid. If anything, Jeff Citron (who has already hit two entrepreneurial “home runs” with Datek and The Island ECN) is super-savvy so the IPO may be part of his Vonage master plan, which has already made him more than $800 million – at least on paper.
Update: Entrepreneurship Blog suggests Vonage could go through its IPO proceeds of $531-million in 7.5 quarters given its burn rate. That's asssuming, of course, the company doesn't attract any more customers. Meanwhile, The Tech Beat questions why investors are more excited about the Vonage IPO than that of MasterCard, which made $319-million in the past 12 months.