I've been online since 1995 (pre-Netscape) and consider
myself a creature of the Web (obsession to e-mail, willingness to try just
about any Web 2.0 application/service, blog-oholic, etc.) but I was blown away
impressed earlier today by a presentation given by Jeff Cole, who
is director of the USC Annenberg School Centre for the Digital Future. (The
event was sponsored by eBay). Cole is heading up an ongoing study looking at
how the growth and growing use of the Internet impact what people do online and
offline. The audience, which is pretty Web-savvy, was entranced by some of the
findings that Cole presented. For a newspaper journalist, however, it was a
little depressing because Cole believes newspapers face a declining future over
the next 20 to 30 years. Rather than read a newspaper, people will more and
more of their information from the Web. So what does this mean for newspapers?
Well, it means they need to leverage their brands and credibility to create Web
sites/services that generate revenue. Cole also had some ominous news for
television industry. He argues television advertising has been in decline since
the 1970s when the remote emerged as the way to consume television. A
particularly troublesome reality is only 5% of people actually watch television
commercials. Does this mean product placements will be the new way to reach
consumers? No. So what does the television industry do to survive? Cole said if
he knew the answer, he'd be on his private island rather than giving
presentations in Toronto
in late-March. In any event, it was a fascinating presentation that rasised
more questions than answers. If there was any consolation from Cole's
presentation is he touched on many of the questions and areas (business,
politics, marketing, advertising) we'll be trying to answer at the mesh conference on May 15/16.
Update: I'll augment this post on Sunday with some more facts and figures.