More (Bad) Info For Vonage IPO

Telegeography will issue its Q4 voice-over-broadband numbers today that will show the U.S. market grew by 25% to 4.5 million subscribers. While Vonage is still the largest provider with 1.2 million customers, Time-Warner is quickly closing the gap as it added 246,000 subscriber to end the quarter at 1.1 million. Cablevision is third at 731,000 while Comcast is fourth with a disappointing 202,000. Telegeography expects there will be 7.9 million customers by year-end while revenue will jump to $2.1-billion from $1-billion. On the face of it, the growth appears to be good news for Vonage but it is increasing obvious the cablecos are quickly closing the gap as they launch more aggressive marketing campaigns. It seems clear Time-Warner will pass Vonage in the first-quarter as the largest VoIP broadband provider. This is not the best news for Vonage and its underwriters as they work to complete Vonage's $250-million IPO. For potential investors, the reality of heightened competition from well-financed rivals does not bode well for Vonage, which has been bleeding as its spends like a drunken sailor on marketing to acquire new customers. Does this mean Vonage could pull the IPO? It's highly unlikely but there is a possibility the offering price could be dropped to get the deal done, which means even more dilution for existing investors who have more than $400-million of private equity in play. For another take on the Telegeogaphy numbers, check out Om Malik's post, which includes some of the charts from the Telegeography report. Another must-read is Om's post on Vonage's troubling churn after he poured over the company's S-1 filing with the SEC. Om also has a post today on the oh-so-quiet departure recently of Vonage's chief marketing officer, Dean Harris, who I guess was the man behind all that online spending.