Mark Evans

Podcast Hype Alive & Well

As I sit on the sidelines wondering whether to do a weekly podcast, eMarketer is loudly pounding the table that the U.S. podcast audience could reach 25 million by 2008 and perhaps 50 million by 2010. The consulting firm also thinks advertising on podcasts will hit $80-million this year and $300-million by 2010. Is this hype or a fact of life? To be honest, I'm still regard podcasts as a geekie service appealing to geekie people but maybe I'm reading things wrong. It could be that podcasts represents the next new trend in audio broadcasts - hot on the heels of satellite-radio. It could be that eMarketer is right and podcasts will become a mainstream service in a few years. Then again, there's growing leeriness about how many people are reading the millions of blogs being created every year. To my way of thinking, it's difficult not to get the feeling that consulting firms have become too excited about the renewed interest in technology. With so much interest, there is a huge opportunity for these consulting firms to sell research to people who think they need to know what's happening. It should be pointed out the research firms (Forrester, Yankee Group, IDC, Gartner) played this game during the dot-com boom. While many of their projections failed to play out as expected at the time, many of their forecasts now materializing - albeit a few years later than what they envisioned.

Update: Steve Rubel thinks 50 million podcasts users is more than enough to attract the interest of advertisers.

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Can Cindy Klassen Save Manitoba Tel?

Cindy Klassen is an Olympic hero after coming home from Turino with five medals but can she save Manitoba Telecom from its growing troubles after signing a multi-year endorsement deal with the Winnipeg-based apparently worth more than $1-million? The involvement of Klassen, a Winnipeg-native, can't hurt if it can help Manitoba Tel regain some of the luster it has lost in the past two years since the ill-fated $1.7-billion acquisition of Allstream. Then again, there may little that can stop the further erosion of Allstream's corporate telecom services business, which finds itself in a war against Rogers, Bell and Telus but without the finances resources to aggressively compete. In many markets, Allstream now finds itself the third option - not a great position in a business where margins are under pressure. Manitoba Tel doesn't appear to be thinking of selling Allstream after it unveiled a new organization structure that divides its business into two divisions: consumer and enterprise.
Tags: Cindy Klassen, Manitoba Telecom, Allstream

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More (Bad) Info For Vonage IPO

Telegeography will issue its Q4 voice-over-broadband numbers today that will show the U.S. market grew by 25% to 4.5 million subscribers. While Vonage is still the largest provider with 1.2 million customers, Time-Warner is quickly closing the gap as it added 246,000 subscriber to end the quarter at 1.1 million. Cablevision is third at 731,000 while Comcast is fourth with a disappointing 202,000. Telegeography expects there will be 7.9 million customers by year-end while revenue will jump to $2.1-billion from $1-billion. On the face of it, the growth appears to be good news for Vonage but it is increasing obvious the cablecos are quickly closing the gap as they launch more aggressive marketing campaigns. It seems clear Time-Warner will pass Vonage in the first-quarter as the largest VoIP broadband provider. This is not the best news for Vonage and its underwriters as they work to complete Vonage's $250-million IPO. For potential investors, the reality of heightened competition from well-financed rivals does not bode well for Vonage, which has been bleeding as its spends like a drunken sailor on marketing to acquire new customers. Does this mean Vonage could pull the IPO? It's highly unlikely but there is a possibility the offering price could be dropped to get the deal done, which means even more dilution for existing investors who have more than $400-million of private equity in play. For another take on the Telegeogaphy numbers, check out Om Malik's post, which includes some of the charts from the Telegeography report. Another must-read is Om's post on Vonage's troubling churn after he poured over the company's S-1 filing with the SEC. Om also has a post today on the oh-so-quiet departure recently of Vonage's chief marketing officer, Dean Harris, who I guess was the man behind all that online spending.

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A Fourth Wireless Carrier in Canada? Really!

The Globe & Mail has a story on speculation the federal government may recommend that a fourth national wireless carrier be created to stimulate competition. I hate to rain on anyone's parade but it ain't going to happen. First, if Ottawa really wanted another carrier to stimulate competition it would never have approved Rogers' $1.4-billion takeover of Microcell. Second, just because the federal government  recommends another carrier be established, who's going to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to do it given there are already three well-entrenched rivals in the market. If anything, Canada could do with a few more MVNOs to stir things up - much like Virgin Canada is trying to do. The MVNO model is Canada is lagging the U.S., but there doesn't appear to be much interest among Telus, Rogers and Bell given there's plenty of low-hanging fruit left to be picked.

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Is This Patent Madness?

According to The Inquirer, a small Web design company in California called Balthaser Online says it has obtained a patent for rich-media Internet applications. If Balthaser's contention is accurate, this could mean anyone who wants to use Flash, Flex, Java, Ajax and XAML may have to pay a licensing fee to Balthaser. This either looks like another U.S. Patent & Trade Office fiasco and/or a company setting itself up to be acquired and put out of its misery. In any event, it - and the patent battle between NTP and RIM - illustrates the USPTO should undergo an extensive review to assess whether the granting of patents is being done in a way that protects the rights of investors while still leaving enough flexibility to encourage innovation.
For more news coverage, check out Information Week.

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London's AIM: The New Nasdaq?

I've got a story  in today's Financial Post about Alternative Investment Market (AIM) in London, which is quickly becoming a popular vehicle for tech start-ups looking to raise growth capital. Unlike North American investors, who still seem skittish about tech stocks even five years after the dot-com bubble burst, European investors - including institutional ones - are enthusiastic about tech start-ups with modest revenue and limited track records. One of the companies currently pursuing a listing is Sandvine Inc., which sells intelligence hardware and software to broadband service providers. So what's AIM's appeal?: less onerous listing and reporting requirements, which makes it an attractive option for companies looking to avoid Sarbannes-Oxley rules. AIM plans to capitalize on the concerns about Sarbannes-Oxley by launching a major marketing campaign in the U.S. In Canada,  investment firm Canaccord Adams has bee particularly active leading companies to AIM through placements or IPOs.

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Leah McLaren: Are You With Us or Agin Us?

I finally got around to reading the weekend papers, and came across a column by the Globe & Mail's Leah McLaren on how she's giving up the blogosphere. At least, I think she's giving up the blogosphere but it's difficult to tell. On one hand, she complains about how many blogs are nasty, they're “spectacularly boring” and there's too much “unedited noise”. Then, she goes on to talk about how some blogs are readable, including one by a friend. So, I'm confused, Leah. Sounds like you're torn but I can understand your dilemma. Yes, the blogosphere is full of noise and lots of crappy, unedited, self-indulgent writing, which makes it difficult to find the “good stuff” (however you want to define that). But there is also plenty of wonderfully  insightful writing that would otherwise never find itself into the mainstream. It's this mix that makes the blogosphere so exciting, frustrating, interesting and, even, boring. While some people are already talking about the blogosphere reaching its zenith, I - and folks like Newsome.org - would argue that things are just getting started. Over time, I believe it will become easier for people to easily discover whatever they consider to be worth reading. But to dismiss the blogosphere or walk away from it is premature. So, Leah, stick around for awhile. With a little patience, I'll sure you find it an interesting place to be. Who knows, you may even feel the urge to write your own blog.
For more thoughts on the blogosphere and who gets to blog, check out Mathew Ingram's spirited post today, which includes a nice comment “war” with Scott Karp. Meanwhile, the Wall St. Journal steps into the fray with a story on the need for a more pragmatic, less “obsessive” approach to the blogosphere.

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Why Carriers Love the Blackberry. Why Alec Saunders is Crying

As the Blackberry teeters on the verge of extinction in the U.S. after yet another legal loss, Alec Saunders has revealed a dirty, little secret about why ARPU-crazed wireless carriers love the Blackberry so they that they're willing to give it away. Saunders just received his monthly bill with a overage charge of $72. Puzzled, he discovered the “unlimited” plan offered to him by Rogers meant unlimited speed, not unlimited data. Sure he should have read the fine print but his experience illustrates a key reason why the love affair between the Blackberry and wireless carriers is so hot and heavy. First, the Blackberry is a cash-cow, and it will become even more lucrative with the launch of new high-speed networks and new Blackberries that finally have a half-decent Web browser. Combining bigger pipes and a better browser gets you more data usage. Now, here's the best part: most Blackberry users - unlike Poor Alec - don't care about much they pay for the service because they their companies pay their wireless bills because it's a business “tool”. If the Blackberry bill is $100 or $150 or $200 a month, so be it because it's not coming out of the user's pocket. But if you're a carrier, the Blackberry is the killer tool to jump-start data usage and ARPU because the Blackberry has become such a must-have corporate tool, everyone seems to have stopped looking at their bills. Maybe corporate bean-counters will start seeking cheaper alternatives (Good, Visto?) when the economy slows down and cost-cutting becomes a strategic necessity. Maybe then, they will realize how expensive using a Blackberry can be. While Alec may get little sympathy from Rogers, he make get some measure of satisfaction by signing an online petition against the company and its sneaky 25MB per month data plan.

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Anyone Using Mollyguard for Online Registration?

In organizing a Web 2.0/blogging conference in early-May in Toronto, we're looking for an inexpensive way to handle online registration and payment. We stumbled across Mollyguard, which appears to fit the bill given we don't need a lot of bells and whistles. Anyone used/using Mollyguard? Any feedback on how well the service works and whether the fees are as good as they appear would be great. If you have other suggestions, that would also be welcome.

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Stop Fooling Around…Time for the GBrowser

What a week for Google: the launch of the quickly-dissed Google Page Creator, rumours of a new voice-mail serivce and new e-commerce features
on Google Base. Come on, Google, let's stop fooling around. If you're
truly serious about making a splash in the Web-based applications
world, it's time to unveil the Google browser. With more being done
online, the browser has become the most important tool for a
growing number of Web users. It's the new “OS” for Web 2.0 so it is
puzzling why Google has embraced Mozilla and unleashed a few hundred
PhDs on the GBrowser. Sure, Google supports Firefox
with a few dedicated employees and a financial relationship that gives
Mozilla millions of dollars of revenue but it's peanuts for Google. By
launching a GBrowser could would have a centerpiece to feature and
promote its growing portfolio of services - imagine a toolbar featuring
tabs for Blogger, Picasa, Froogle, desktop, blog and regular search,
GMail, Google Base, Google Pages, News and Google Earth. Consider this
to be the ultimate Web Suite - a one-stop destination for doing pretty
much anything you want to do online (it would be even more interesting
with the launch of an online Office suite). The puzzling part is why
Google has jumped into the browser market yet. If Flock
can try to develop the Web 2.0 browser with a couple million dollars of
VC and a few employees, Google should be working on the IE-killer
rather than launching disappointing, slow-to-market services that offer
little in the way of innovation and seem to be abandoned as soon as
they unveiled.

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