Randy Morin's Blog Awards

Randy Morin has put together the KBcafe Blog Awards that covers everything from the best left-wing blogs and best sports blogs to the best sci-if blogs. It's encouraging to see blogs get some more attention at a time when The Webbys is cautiously treading into the blogosphere. Perhaps one of the best things about Randy's awards is checking out all the blogs that are listed – looks like my afternoon “free time” is now accounted for! In the absence of “institutionalized” blog awards, it is interesting to see how individuals are stepping into the breach. The Canadian Blog Awards was recently run by (I think) Robert McClelland, whose blog is My Blahg. Not sure whether his efforts were altruistic or promotional/marketing-focused but he attracted a lot of attention  within Canada's small, but growing, blog community.
Update: In keeping with the season, The Blog Herald has handed out some Best Christmas Blog Awards.
Update II: Anil Dash has a post last week on how blog awards work and why they are becoming more popular.
 
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A Technorati-Microsoft Deal?

In the new, exciting Web 2.0 game of who's going to acquire who, Blogspotting's Stephen Baker tossed out the idea that Microsoft could buy Technorati. Frankly, I do think this deal is going to go down because Microsoft seems sofocused these days on ensuring its own applications are Web-ified and work seamlesly together. This approach is fairly easy to glean from Ray Ozzie's Christmas message in which he talks about service-enhanced sofware, Vista and Office 12. If Microsoft were serious about the blogosphere and RSS, it would have been in the market snapping up many of the hot start-ups that Yahoo, Google, et al acquired such as Flickr and del.icio.us. Microsoft has MSN Spaces but the company is far more engrossed in transforming itself from an old-style client-based software maker into an online application service provider with tight integration between its products. Of course, Microsoft has more than $30-billion of cash so it can buy anything it wants. But the fact it has done little shopping suggests Microsoft has bigger strategic priorities – most of them organic – so it makes little sense to distract itself with small acquisitions (even if Robert Scoble is “encouraging” them to do so).

Creating a Real Web 2.0 Start-Up

A friend, Mark Walker, came over today for a little holiday cheer, and we started talking about his next entrepreneurial idea. (Mark's a real dyed-in-the-wool entrepreneur who has left a career in law  far behind.) Without getting into the details of what he plans to do (which will address a huge point of pain), we talked about the key ingredients you need these days to create a Web 2.0 start-up with a good shot of becoming successful. Surprisingly, way down on the list is money. These days, it's more important to have a really good idea, a crack development team (you can do it in-house but it's probably cheaper to hire a crack developer or development team from overseas), and first or second-mover advantage. If there's a real problem to be solved, you run as hard as you can to generate a critical mass or community of users. The key elements during this phase are user-friendly technology that simply works well, and a general idea of how to make money. Once a lot of people start digging your application or service and you make some revenue, then you need to think about introducing other fee-based services that a portion of your user base will buy into. At this point, the VCs come into play but until then there's really not a lot of money that needs to spent given distribution costs over the Web are minimal and a good service will be your best sales tool thanks to the power of online viral marketing. If you think about it, the best example of this formula is Skype, which didn't raise a lot of money  ($18.8-million in venture capital) but had an excellent service that millions of users loved. Of course, the downside of the Web 2.0 start-up environment is the barriers to entry are pretty low, which explains why there are dozens of companies chasing the same Web 2.0 dream. Look at the photo-sharing market, which SiliconBeat put the spotlight on recently. The only people really thriving from this start-up phenomena are Michael Arrington (a.k.a. Tech Crunch) and Emily Chang (a.ka. eHub), who spend much of their time chronicling all the new cool services being unveiled. Given the intense competition, a successful Web 2.0 start-up needs a really good idea that addresses a point of point; some money at the right time and a lot of luck to hit it big. Rick Segal (a.k.a. Post Money Value) has had some excellent posts recently on the worlds of VC and entrepreneurs. Check out “Build to Flip=Build to Fail“,  “The New VC Handbook” and “Inside the Process”. Perhaps the most encouraging development of 2006 – putting aside all the hype and hand-wringing about Web 2.0 – is the return of the entrepreneur. After several years of hibernation, it was encouraging to see optimism and enthusiasm come back into the technology world. Entrepreneurs are a different breed of cat that bring sizzle to business. Without them, life is dull. We should all celebrate that Web 2.0 or whatever's going on within the tech world has brought the entrepreneur back to life!

The Year That Was in VOIP

If you want a recap of what happened in VOIP this year, VOIP Central has a comprehensive month-by-month account of who did what. When you look at the list, it really shows just how much went down. For a forward look at VOIP, check out my post on the different challlenges facing carriers looking to grow their own VOIP businesses. On a VOIP-related note, I've been meaning to highlight a recent post by Russell Shaw on how he believes Net2Phone could find itself in the hands of Rupert Murdoch's MySpace or Amazon.com. Net2Phone, which has about 100K, subscribers, is in the midst of an odd situation where IDT is trying to purchase the shares in Net2Phone it doesn't already own – but not having too much success.
 
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Microsoft Pursuing Opera?

Is Bill Gates looking to buy some Opera for Christmas? The rumors are loudly rumbling that Microsoft is looking to bolster its browser technology by acquiring Opera, the third most-popular Web browser behind IE and Firefox. In theory, the deal makes sense because it will give Microsoft access to Opera's technology, which, in many ways, if superior to IE. It could – and I stress could – help Microsoft put a stop to the decline in IE's market share declines. As important, it would give Microsoft a stronger foothold in the mobile browser market where Opera has been thriving recently as it looks for growth beyond the desktop. On the other hand, a Microsoft-Opera deal would come as a surprise because Opera has worked so hard to establish itself in the browser market. The Norwegian company seems on the verge of participating in a vibrant and competitive browser market with the emergence of Firefox and new entrants such as Flock. At the same time, Opera has a pretty tight relationship with Google and it generates several million dollars by sending traffic to Google's search engine. As a result, it makes you wonder if Google would step into the fray and purchase Opera to create the much anticipated G-browser. What do you think Bill Gates would have to say if Google trumped him again in the wake of the $1-billion Google investment in AOL? The big questions facing Opera is: why sell and why sell to Microsoft? Perhaps money talks but it would be shame to see Opera disappear given the more competition there is in the browser better, the more likely we will see more innovation.
Update: One more thought about an Opera-Microsoft marriage. There is a history of animosity between the two companies over Microsoft's decision to make some MSN sites look bad if you were using Opera. When Opera threatened a lawsuit last year, Microsoft made it disappear with a $12-million payment.
For some other views on Opera-Microsoft, check out Jupiter analyst Michael Gartenberg and Mathew Ingram.

The New "Henry Blodget"?

I'd never heard of William Morrison, an analyst with JMP Securities, until this morning when I read he has raised his 12-month target price on Google to $575 from $400. Morrison became more bullish about Google following the AOL deal, which will give Google “multiple entrées into the branded market, which is important for the company's long term growth outlook.” His bullishness and a dot-com company and willingness to throw out such an eye-catching number reminds me of Henry Blodget, who was a little-known analyst with CIBC Oppenheimer, until he boldly suggested in December 1998 that Amazon.com would hit $400. Within several weeks, Blodget's target was reached, and he was soon snapped by Merrill Lynch. (As an aside, Blodget wrote a column in January 1999 that “Unlike with other famous bubbles…the Internet bubble is riding on rock-solid fundamentals, perhaps stronger than any the market has seen before.”) Perhaps Morrison is trying to be the next Henry Blodget by jumping out ahead of the pack to capture some attention. If Google rockets forward, then Morrison will be seen as prescient, his status within the analyst community will be enhanced, and he may land himself a new gig. Then again, stock price targets are strange beasts because in many cases they are based as much on emotion than fundamentals. If people believe a stock is going to hit a certain target because analysts issue specific targets, then investors will buy the stock - and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Google is a no-lose opportunity for an analyst looking to make his mark. It's easily the dot-com play right now and the sky is the limit. If you ask me, hooking your future on a rising star doesn't seem to be that much of a gamble.
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