Mark Evans

Chambers Naturally Bullish on Web Traffic

I'm having a terrible 1970s flashback to Rachel Stevens' hit song “More, More, More” after hearing John Chambers' aggressive view on the Internet. Speaking to analysts this morning, the Cisco CEO said he expects Internet traffic to grow 300% to 500% a year over the next decade. That's astounding given growth has been about 100% in recent years. Not surprisingly, the biggest driver will be video as Internet-based services such as IP-TV, video-on-demand and mobile TV become more popular. Cisco, of course, stands to benefit from this explosive growth as the need for routers and switches within networks will likely surge, as well devices within the home (routers, set-top boxes, etc.) to handle more traffic after it leaves the “last mile”. Chambers could be in ultra-sales mode and/or he could simply be discussing what he sees on the horizon. Even he's half right, the growth in traffic will be amazing. With all the talk about Web 2.0, I think it might be time to start talking about Telecom 2.0 - a phrase and idea introduced to me recently by a cable executive. This is world where IP-based services (video, data, audio) are delivered over networks to consumers when they want them, how they want them and where they want them. I think we're just beginning to search the tip of the iceberg with Apple's deals with ABC and NBC to deliver television shows to the iPod. If you step back, what this represents is the delivery of video to a mobile video device that uses Internet to deliver it. It won't be long before consumers will come to expect to receive this kind of service delivery anywhere, any time. This will dramatically change how the telecom, cable and media industries operate - hence the term “Telecom 2.0.” Any thoughts?