Canadian Blog Awards

Hey, I almost forgot that round one voting is taking place today
for the Canadian Blog Awards. I'm nominated in two categories – Best
Business Blog and Best Media Blog. If you want to vote, click here.
 

Bad News for RIM

It is not a good day for Research in Motion after it was spanked by a U.S. judge,
who said a $450-million settlement reached earlier this year between
RIM and NTP over a patent dispute can't be enforced. U.S. District
court judge James Spencer will now decide whether and/or how to impose
an injunction that could prevent RIM from selling Blackberrys in the
U.S. So what does RIM do now? They can settle the patent dispute, which
will cost them a whole lot more than $450-million; they can wait until
the U.S. Patent Office completes its review of NTP's patents, which RIM
disputes; or RIM can implement a software work-around
that will continue to do business in the U.S. even if an injunction
comes down. My sense is both sides are so well-entrenched and so
convinced of their positions, a settlement could be the last of
the three options explored. It is important to remember there
is little to be gained by NTP if RIM's U.S. business is badly
damaged. All NTP wants is its pound of flesh. RIM's willingness to
cooperate depends on the terms of a settlement and whether they're
attractive enough from a financial and licensing flexibility
perspective to convince RIM to put aside its convictions.
 

What's Craiglist Really Worth

Everyone loves Craigslist
- the Web's biggest classified service. What makes Craigslist unique is
its quasi-public service approach to business. The only fees it charges
are for listing jobs in San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles.
Everything else is free. It seems like a strange approach given how
more revenue it could generate by charging for other things such as
aparment listings. Still, revenue this year is expected to be
$20-million. Craig Newmark, who
started Craig's List and still owns a majority stake, has rejected
venture capital financing and an IPO. It's so anti-capitalist that it's
refreshingly different. Still, there are people who wonder what Craig's
List could be worth if it did business more aggressively and took
advantage of its position as the seventh-most popular Web site in the
U.S. Fortune's Adam Lashinsky
steps into the valuation financial breach with a story that estimates Craigslist
could be worth have annual revenue of $550-million. Lashinsky's figure comes from Eric Baker,
co-founder of Stubhub.com, an online ticketing site, who examined
Craigslist's traffic and transaction volume. So far, Newmark has shown
no interest in reaping the financial benefits of Craigslist's success
but that could change given his plans to introduce a new online
journalism service that would will a void now being met by newspapers.
(Update: From what I understand, the new service is a venture headed by
Buzz Machine's Jeff Jarvis) Newmark's plans are still somewhat fuzzy
other than it seems to be something based on community or cooperative
journalism. If Newmark needs financing to launch this new service
(business?), he could easily raise VC or do something with Craiglist's
structure (IPO?) or squeeze some more cash from Craiglist through more
extensive fees (the most likely possibility). For more insight into
Craigslist's approach to business, check out a story I wrote earlier
this year in the Financial Post after an interview with COO Jim Buckmaster.
Update: Mathew Ingram
has worked up Craigslist's potential value – $330 million- using Om
Malik's $38 per unique monthly visitor metric. Ingram says this is
“about 16.5 times the company’s revenue, which is higher than the range
that Jason Calacanis thinks is reasonable
for an online property, but a lot less than the almost 70 times revenue
eBay agreed to pay for Skype, based on the $4.1-billion price tag).”
 

Nortel Management Shuffle Underway

It looks like Mike Zafirovski is wasting no time revamping Nortel's
management team. According to UBS Securities, the executives shown the door recently include
chief research officer Brian McFadden and Sue Spradley, president of
global services and operations. Both McFadden and Spradley were
long-time Nortel executives who had been shuffled around recently. They
were also among the group of senior executives who “voluntarily” returned
large bonuses in the wake of Nortel's accounting scandal.
So who's next on the hit list? While it would be a major surprise if
CFO Peter Currie leaves the company (Zafirovski has made some positive
public statements about Currie), you have to wonder about Steve
Slattery
and Richard Lowe. In yet another corporate reorganization
unveiled in September that split the company into two product groups,
Slattery was appointed head of Nortel's corporate
and
packet networks business while Lowe  was named head of 
wireless and converged core networks. Niether long-time executive was
seen as a star within Nortel so you have to wonder whether Zafirovski
will keep them in such key posititions. Like a baseball manager or
football coach who wants to be surrounded by his own people, Zafirovski
will likely recruit people he knows and trusts. His settlement with
Motorola – where he spent five years before leaving in January after
losing a bid to become CEO  – will keep him from poaching former
colleagues – at least for awhile. But look for him to start shuffling
Nortel's management ranks in short order as he works on this turnaround
plan.

Cringely's Big Google Thoughts

Robert Cringely
is such a big, high-level thinker, my brain hurts when I read his
columns – and I mean this in a good way because he raises ideas that
force you to pause to recalibrate your own thinking. Take, for
example, his column on Google Cubes, which comes on the heels of his Google data-centre in a shipping container column
(two must-reads for Google watchers). Cringely believes Google could
establish itself as a key – if not the key – technology within the digital home
with small boxes (they sound like a media or communications gateway) that would connect different devices to the Internet.
Here's his description:
“This embedded device, for which I am
afraid I have no name, is a small box covered with many types of ports
- USB, RJ-45, RJ-11, analog and digital video, S-video, analog and
optical sound, etc. Additional I/O that can't be seen is WiFi and
Bluetooth. This little box is Google's interface to every computer, TV,
and stereo system in your home, as well as linking to home automation
and climate control. The cubes are networked together wirelessly in a
mesh network, so only one need be attached to your broadband modem or
router. Like VoIP adapters (it does that too, through the RJ-11
connector) the little cubes will come in the mail and when plugged in
will just plain work.”
I believe
the Google Cube is way
out there thinking but I'll never dismiss anything Google could do
given its financial strength and the grandiose plans of Mr. Page and
Mr. Brin (If they aren't evil, they are terribly ambitious). In
any event, Cringely believes the Google Cube could become an essential
and ubiquitous part of the digital home by doing what Google does best:
providing a simple-to-use and useful service that would drive consumers
to other Google services and, of course, advertising. If there's a
downside,
it's that Google's grip on consumers becomes even stronger – without
taking into account the normal fears about privacy. Of course,
consumers can choose to use Google Cubes but I think millions of people
would happily take one if they existed.

Wired Magazine: Barometer of Industry Health?

I started to leaf through the latest Wired magazine
last night when it suddenly struck me it was a nice, hefty,
advertising-packed 296 pages. This took me back to the height of the dot-com
boom when magazines such as Wired, Business 2.0 (which went bi-weekly), Fast Company and the Industry Standard
regularly published heavy, back-busting issues. In fact, they were so
big, I got
into this weird habit of ripping as many ads as I could from these
paper monsters to lighten the load – there has got to be a
description for
this kind of behavior, right?. I don't think
the high-tech
magazine industry has totally rebounded back to dot-com health but
it's interesting to see Wired getting thicker. Does this suggest
the
high-industry is becoming more optimistic? Maybe. I guess what's
encouraging
about Wired's return is its advertiser roster is chock-a-block with
blue-chip
firms such as Toyota, Sun, Acura, Motorola, Sony and Microsoft.
There is a comforting absence of all those hot Web 2.0 start-ups. When
you see these guys start advertising in Wired, sell everything because
the party is probably over. One thing about Wired is it seems have
recaptured its “cool” factor. There was a time not so long ago
when Wired lost me as a reader. Perhaps it was simply information
overload given I read a lot – much of it not on paper – or it
could have been Wired lost its focus trying to figure out whether
it wanted to be a tech magazine or a business magazine or both or
neither. In any event, I got lured back to Wired by a ultra-low
subscription offer (those $2 a month deals that used to be mysteriously
unavailable to Canadians) so I'm back in the fold. For me, the
high-tech magazine comeback will really be complete when freelance
writing
assignments start to materialize again. During the boom, editors were
wonderfully desperate for content because they needed something to fill
those
annoying gaps between advertisements!
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