Is Skype for sale or not? Is it considering an IPO or not? It's hard to tell what's what given the speculation about talks with Rupert Murdoch and the hiring of Morgan Stanley as a financial advisor. According to TechWeb News, the company is now claiming it is not for sale. How should this claim be taken? Does it mean Skype didn't get anywhere near the $3-billion is was apparently seeking? Is an IPO the preferred route because it will provide Skype's VCs with liquidity while allowing Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis to maintain control of the company? Questions, questions, questions! One thing we do know is Skype has signed up more than two million subscribers for its premium services, which include SkypeIn and SkypeOut. Of course, we don't know how often they actually use these services or ARPU. As for SkypeIn and SkypeOut, I wonder when/whether they will be coming to Canada.
By the way, any interested in VOIP and its future should check out Om Malik's post on the long-term impact of voice over instant-messaging applications.
Blogger Beware?
The Wall St. Journal and some other publications are reporting on an interesting story about a blogger, Aaron Wall, being sued for comments made on his blog, SEOBook.com. Apparently, some of Wall's readers had unkind things to say about Traffic-Power.com. In response, Traffic-Power decided to file a lawsuit in a Nevada court, which lists several unnamed users of the blog. The WSJ said Wall could have some legal protection because the courts have ruled in the past that people who run computer message boards and mailing lists can't be held liable for comments posted by other people. It's an intriguing issue given there are so many blogs out there and most comments are made by anonymous users. But until this case is addressed by the courts, it's difficult to say whether bloggers should be worried.
Skype's Secret Weapon
For all the buzz about Google Talk, Skype should continue to be a strong player for several reasons. Among them is the developer community, which has reportedly created more than 400 applications since Skype opened its API last November. Skype recently held a competition for its developers, which was won by the Jyve Plugin. The Jyve plug-in adds Skype functionality to Web pages. Khaos Labs, Columbus CRM, Iskoot, Audiomatic and SalesForce.com were also cited. The growth of the Skype software community has been interesting because there are now dozens of companies generating revenue from Skype users. At the same time, Skype is working to get its own revenue and business model to the next level. In some cases, this pits Skype against its developer eco-system but Skype's future depends on its appeal to as many as users as possible, which means the more third-party apps the better. Skype's also got a new version of its software, which was released last week.
Speaking of applications, Andy Abramson has a good post on how it's the applications, not the price of minutes, that will drive VOIP. “The use of price will still attract some, but the real money will be made with the invention and deployment of the next voice mail, three way calling and call waiting types of apps hit the market,” according to Andy.
Opera Turns 10
Opera, the alternative Web browser showing good momentum in the wireless and set-top box markets, is celebrating its 10th birthday – coming shortly after the same anniversary as Windows 95. Opera is marking the occasion by giving away free registration codes for 24 hours. To get one, click here. Opera roots go back to its days as a research project at Norwegian carrier Telenor. According to an interview Om Malik did in last month's Business 2.0 with CEO Jon von Tetzchner, Opera sells about 100K copies of its $39 software a year but only one-third of its revenue comes from the desktop market where it has 10 million to 15 million active users – most of them using the free ad-supported version. On the non-PC side of the house, von Tetzchner said Opera sold 8.8 million copies of its software last year. These customers include Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Motorola, Casio, BenQ and Kyocera.
The Outlook For Canada's VOIP Market
The Seaboard Group have put together another insightful and entertaining report on the Canadian VOIP market called “Top of the First – the VoIP battle begins”. So what's the bottom line? Seaboard expects there will be 4.02 million VOIP lines by 2008, compared with 418K by the end of 2005. In terms of dollars, the market in three years will be worth about $1 billion, or 5% of the total voice business, as intense competition drives down prices. So what should carriers do stay vibrant in the voice market? Seaboard advises them to “fight fire with fire” by rolling out VOIP services that exploit the weaknesses of cablecos products. Seaboard points out that a vulnerable area for the cablecos is the lack of value-added features. Videotron Ltee, for example, has attracted 62K customers in the past six months even though it is offering a low-frills service. Then again, selling VOIP for as low as $15.95 a month helps the sales effort, and Seaboard expects the cableco to have 125K customers by the end of 2005. The research firm suggests the cablecos stay on the offensive as it will be more difficult for Bell/Telus to win back customers than it will be for the cablecos to win them in the first place. As for the independents such as Vonage and Primus, Seaboard believes it will be more difficult for them to compete. As a result, they need to keep on the marketing warpath and show consumers they can be innovative, flexible and adaptible.
Google's ISP Plans?
With Google Talk and Google Desktop released into the wild, the question on the minds of many people is what's next for Google strategically? Broadband Reports suggests a Google portal featuring Mozilla tools that would be used by ISPs through a marketing agreement – rather than Google running a Wi-Fi network or traditional ISP service. While it's an interesting idea, Google has shown tepid interest in the portal market – at least so far. I dabbled with the Google homepage earlier this year but haven't used it much since or heard anything from Google in terms of an upgrade. Perhaps the portal strategy will unfold after Google Talk and Google Desktop gain some momentum and/or market share. As for relationships with ISPs, who's Google going to partner with? Given Yahoo has made strong inroads with the telcos, does Google pursue the cable market? Does Google strike deals with dial-up ISPs, which are still vibrant and need no-frills tools to maintain customers? Or does Google simply launch its own stand-alone portal? With more than $6-billion in the bank – assuming Google completes its $4.2-billion secondary offering – the company has the financial clout to do pretty much what it likes.
