Mark Evans

Firefox's Guerilla Marketing

Not that it should surprise anyone but the Firefox community's efforts to spread the word now include online commercials. Firefox evangelist Tristan Nitot commissioned three a French viral agency to create three ads, which show people using Firefox for the first time. The video clips, which are designed to be e-mailed to friends, have been viewed nearly two millions times this month. While it's amusing to see the Firefox community step it up, the real test will come when IE 7 is ready for prime time. With enhanced anti-virus protection and tabbed browsing, the big question will be whether Firefox can maintain its momentum. In other words, can it take the leap from 50 million downloads to 100 million, and can it move from 6% or so of the browser market to 10%? At 10%, corporate users may have to sit up and take notice that there is an alternative out there. Then again, you wonder have many CIOs and CTOs are ready to adopt an open-souce browser, even though many of them are using Linux on their Web servers.

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Skype's Evolution Continues

Skype took another step forward with the formal launch of its affiliate program that rewards Web sites for helping the company attract more users. During a keynote speech to VON Europe, Skype CEO Niklas Zennstrom said Web sites can receive a commission of to 10% for promoting Skype. The program, managed by Commission Junction, already had more than 1,800 affiliates sign up during a test run. The first group of “super” affiliates includes 192.com, Firstream, SpyMac and MyFamily.com. The affiliate program suggests Skype's transition from a free P2P telephony service to telecom company with revenue is happening quickly. While the company does not release financial numbers, it is clear that SkypeIn and SkypeOut have become widely-used and lucrative. Another revenue source could be SkypeSee, a video-conferencing service now in beta.
On another front, it will be interesting to see how Skype addresses 911 service and how regulators deal wity Skype. If you try to use Skype to make a 911 call, this message pops up: “You cannot use Skype to many any emergency calls”. During its days as a pure P2P service, there was no question Skype stood above the 911 fray. But now that it's becoming a more “traditional” telephony service, it can only a matter of time before regulators start to examine whether Skype needs to offer 911. In Canada, Skype was not included in the mandatory 911 edict because it does not offer Canadian telephone numbers.

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Real Technology for the Real World: Robotic Floor Cleaner

While somewhat off the traditional beat, it is hard to resist passing the word along about the iRobot Scooba Robotic floor washer, which allows a robot to simultaneously vacuum, scrub and dry hardwood and tile floors automatically. It sounds too good to be true but, if it actually works, it could easily change the whole household cleaning dynamic. Apparently, this robot only uses fresh water and cleaning solution from a clean tank so dirty water never hits the floor. Now, if they could come up with technology to automatically clean the bathroom, I'd seriously consider buying in.

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Caspian Networks Raises $55M

It is eye-catching to see Caspian Networks attract US$55-million in private equity - bringing its total fundraising total to $317-million. Clearly, investors see an opportunity for Caspian in the router market, which is dominated by Cisco and Juniper. Of course, there could be other angles to the deal given routers play such a crucial role in IP networks, and how Cisco and Juniper are winning key parts of next-generation network contracts - i.e. BT's $19-billion 21CN deal. To remain competitive and vibrant, major telecom equipment makers may need world-class router technology in their IP portfolios. Nortel is a prime example given how its partnership in Avici Systems has been less than successful. Nortel also appears to be having some troubles getting its Neptune edge router into the market - a key reason why it was nowhere near competitive in the BT supplier selection process. Perhaps Caspian's investors believe there is a big M&A deal to be done if the company can stick around until someone comes courting. Aside from Nortel, potential suitors may include Alcatel, Siemens, or even Cisco and Juniper. Cisco bought high-end router maker Procket Networks last year for $89-million for its 130 engineers. Maybe Chinese suppliers such as Huawei and ZTE would step up to the plate given they appear to have strong financial support to do deals.

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VOIP 911

I don't know what all the fuss is about in the U.S. about the FCC mandating full-feature 911 for VOIP service providers. There have been some media reports about the cost involved, which could drive up VOIP prices and/or force small players out of the market. If VOIP wants to be taken seriously as a mainstream consumer service, 911 should be a low barrier to entry. You can argue that VOIP is different than traditional telephony service, and shouldn't have to live by the same rules. This may be true in some regards but fundamentally VOIP is a voice service/application so the need to offer 911 service shouldn't be seen as cumbersome given most, if not all, consumers take it as a basic option. In Canada, the CRTC took the right approach last month when it ordered stationary VOIP SPs to provide e911 and mobile VOIP providers to provide basic 911. It is probably the most logical part of the CRTC's decision to regulate VOIP.

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China's 3G Plans

The pot of gold at the end of the wireless rainbow - a.k.a. China's implementation high-speed 3G networks - will likely happen within the next three years, according to government officials. For wireless suppliers such as Nortel, Ericsson, Lucent and Siemens, China's 3G project represents the last major new business opportunity. As a result, there will be enormous competition - lower margins, modest profits - to see who can win the biggest chunk of the deals. There are rumors, however, China is delaying its 3G launch so domestic suppliers can get up to speed on China's local 3G standard, TD-SCDMA.
In other Nortel news, it looks like the media may have over-reacted to plans by Nortel and IBM to establish a joint R&D facility. In a Nortel press release issued late yesterday afternoon, it appears to be a major strategic development and a way to seriously reduce R&D costs. While it could become something significant down the road, the initial plans only involve 30 existing employees. Nortel said the number could climb as the new entity works on new projects. Let's check back in a year and see if anything serious materializes.

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Google's Evolution to a Portal

Google's evolution into a portal took a major step forward with “Fusion”, which lets people personalize Google.com. The choices are fairly basic - Gmail, BBC, New York Times, stock quotes, movies, driving directions, etc. Strategically, however, it's a crucial step forward by bringing Google one step closer to direct competition against Yahoo, AOL and Microsoft. My initial impression is it makes Google.com that much more sticky by offering some basic Web services. it's the first step in amalgamating Google's various Web properties - Froogle, Blogger, Okrut, etc. - into one entity. Google fascinates me because it has turned into an exciting and somewhat unpredictable R&D laboratory backed by the lucrative AdSense business. Fusion is just another way Google is throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. Personally, I like the idea of Fusion because it provides Google.com users with another reason to stick around all day. It's reason to make Yahoo CEO Terry Semel sleep a little less soundly, and a major blow to search engines look to grab a foothold.

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Canada's Still a P2P Banana Republic

Canadians can still download free music without the fear of being sued after a Federal Court of Appeal upheld a lower court ruling that ISPs don't have to disclose the names of their customers. As a result, the music industry has no way to legally pursue people who download free music - at least for the time being. This means the music industry must continue its efforts to have the federal government change the copyright laws. Given the Liberal Party is desperately trying to stay in power, this will likely be a low priority. So if you live north of the border and have no qualms about downloading music for free, fire up Kazaa and go crazy. Of course, you can only download music; you can't share it otherwise that's breaking the law. Make of that what you will.
Addendum: I may have been off the mark in my take on the Federal Court decision. While the music industry's appeal was denied, it looks like the court said the identify of downloaders can be disclosed if the music industry moves quickly and shows the court the information is fresh and relevant.

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Dial-Up is (Still) Alive & Well

The dial-up business, which is supposed to disappear as broadband becomes more ubiquitious, refuses to go down without a fight. A key figure in their corner - excuse the boxing theme - is Slipstream Data Inc., which develops acceleration technology that puts dial-up service on steroids. Slipstream just signed up their 2,000th client - which is surprising because I didn't think there were 2,000 dial-up ISPs in business. While dial-up may not get a lot of attention these days, there is clearly a market for the service from consumers unwilling to pay $40 to $60 a month for a high-speed connection. These are people who may want to check e-mail from time to time, or looking for cheap Internet access while on the road. For ISPs, dial-up is a lucrative business because costs are low even if you sell it for $10 a month. Slipstream's customers include AOL Canada (Netscape Nitro) and United Online (Net Zero, Juno).

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P2P Fatigue

A conversation with a twenty-something in the office this week about music downloading caught my attention when he remarked that he had started buying CDs again. Intrigued, I asked why he had walked away from free P2P services such as Kazaa, which are still legal to use in Canada until our copyright laws change. His answer was far from definitive - he had just grown tired of “stealing” music. It's an interesting comment because it makes you wonder what's changed, and if this is representative of a growing sentiment. My sense is there may be “P2P Fatigue” starting to emerge. It's like going to an all-you-eat buffet with amazing desserts. After a while, you get stuffed and realize that maybe the next time you're out for dinner, the nice - more expensive - restaurant up the street - with smaller, but better portions - would be a better. You can equate the nicer restaurant to CDs or Web services such as iTunes, which - for a fee - offer high-quality, virus-free downloads. Music retailers are making this option more appealing with lower CD prices and more places online to buy music. Meanwhile, artists such as Dave Matthews are doing what they can to counter stupid moves by the old-guard music industry by giving their customers/fans way to get around Windows Media DRM protection.
I'm not suggesting P2P activity is declining and there will be a massive wave of people poised to storm HMV stores or iTunes but maybe more people are deciding to go legit. If P2P Fatigue is really alive and well, there is a huge opportunity for the music industry to win back consumers.This means the industry needs to stop hammering its customers legally and, instead, focus on the benefits of buying legitimate music such as higher-quality products, access to value-added features such as priority concert tickets and merchandise.

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