If not 8×8, Then Who?

To pursue the 8×8 train of thought a little more, I'm wondering how investors can leverage the emergence of VOIP. Do they take advantage of industry growth by pursuing companies in the hardware, software, security or service sectors? If so, do they stick with well-known brand names such as Symantec, Juniper, Cisco and Nortel, or are there interesting niche players out there? Any feedback/ideas would be much appreciated – not from a personal investment point of view but in terms of getting a better handle on whether the investment opportunities out there come anywhere near the hype surrounding VOIP.

More 8×8 Math

If you haven't read the comment on this blog about 8×8 Inc. and its third-quarter results, check it out. “Inspired” – I use that word loosely! – by my posting, someone did some more number-crunching on 8×8's balance sheet and looked at things such as cost of acquisition and sales per day per subscriber ($1). It's not a pretty picture, which makes 8×8's $130-million market capitalization looks more and more suspect. For all the talk about 8×8's video service, people really need to scratch beneath the surface. Sure hope Jennifer Garner didn't take 8×8 shares for appearing the company's new advertising campaign.
Addendum: Andy Abramson has a posting that talks about 8×8 suffering terrible technical problems, including dropped calls. Yikies!

Nortel's Letter to Shareholders (2003)

Take a look at Nortel's 2003 letter to shareholders . It's a pretty strange read because CEO Bill Owens is talking about a period of time that happened 13 to 25 months ago. There's not much in the way of strategic insight but lots of optimism about the future, including a nice, warm-all-over conclusion that: “Nortel is poised for growth and renewed success, supported by a compelling vision already endorsed by customers worldwide.”
There is nothing in the letter about Nortel's second internal investigation into revenue recognition, the flurry of class-action lawsuits it faces, the investigations by the FBI, RCMP, SEC and Ontario Securities Commission, the need to post 2004 results and, finally, when it plans to hold an annual shareholders meeting.

Bell's VOIP Trials

Bell has been pretty quiet about its VOIP plans but it turns out ther is a trial going on in Sherbrooke, Quebec. Bell Digital Voice features unlimited calling in North America, lots of features such as voice-mail, call-forwarding and voice-mail on e-mail, as well as access to 10 phone numbers. Who knows what Belll will include when it eventually rolls out a service but one analyst called its trial “very Vonage-like”.
The big question is when Bell will make its move into the market. This will likely hinge on when the CRTC spells out how or/and if it will regulate VOIP – a decision that is expected fairly soon. If Bell does want to make a move soon, it would likely have to be in Western Canada where it is a competitive carrier and, as a result, free from the CRTC.

Bell's IP Momentum

Bell Canada's new and enthusiastic focus on IP-based services produced
another dividend today with a new deal with BMO Financial, which will
connect 1,100 branches across the country using a virtual private network.
“This agreement with BMO is a perfect example showing that our strategy is
not only working but the marketplace is responding,” said Isabelle
Courville, who heads up Bell's corporate division. “Bell Canada is now
executing on its vision, working closely with customers to achieve the
efficiencies and increased productivity anticipated with migration to IP.
Bell's excitement about the agreement is a no-brainer because it needs to
move quickly into the IP world if it wants to stay competitive and reduce
its costs, which have an essential part of BCE Inc.'s corporate makeover in
the past three years.

Who's Going to be Nortel's Next CEO?

You have to assume Peter Currie will be Nortel's CEO at some point. It seems like an odd move for him to go back to a job he's had before at a company still troubled by accounting, regulatory and police investigations. You can expect a flurry of speculation/media stories into who might become a candidate. Tyler Hamilton believes Nortel needs a CEO with “vision who knows the industry”. While I think Currie's promotion is a slam-dunk, it would make a lot of sense to have a strong CFO who can talk to Bay St. and Wall St. and a strong CEO who can to customers.

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