With 2004 coming to an end, I've been thinking about some of the things I'd like to see under the “tree” by next Christmas. In no particular order:
1. Vonage's IPO: Let's really get a handle on whether Jeffrey Citron's latest creation meets the hype that has surrounded it for the past two years. With more than US$100-million in private equity raised, the expectations within the investment community are huge. While Citron has been coy about an IPO, you have to believe Vonage is simply waiting for just the right time – the right offer given Citron's track record – before a transaction happens. My take is Vonage's IPO will be huge because many investors will let their enthusiasm swamp the company's fundamentals or the competitive landscape, which is becoming more intense. If Citron follows his entrepreneurial modus operandi, do not be surprised to see Vonage taken out by an AT&T or SBC in 2005.
2. DIY Residential VOIP: I'm not talking about the plain vanilla VOIP currently being served up, which appeals to the early adopter set and people looking for a single Internet telephony line, but VOIP for a multi-handset households. Perhaps one of the cordless handset makers such as VTech, Panasonic or Uniden will enter into some kind of joint venture with Vonage or CallVantage, and sell a package that includes telephony service, three or four handsets, and a router from SMC, Linksys or D-Link. The alternative is expensive in-home service involving a truck roll.
3. Regulatory clarity: In Canada, the CRTC is expected to rule early next year whether or if to regulate Internet telephony. The choices appears to be quasi-regulation where incumbent carriers are regulated while competitors are free to set their own prices; or a level playing field. In the U.S., the FCC has decided VOIP is a federal responsibility. Now let's see what the FCC does next as far as regulation or lack thereof.
4. Rational, Pragmatic Research: As the Internet telephony market matures, we're starting to see some of the consulting firm issue forecasts about growth over the next three to five years. Not surprisingly, many of them are ultra-bullish given it's hard to sell research without some sizzle. Despite the excitement surrounding the technology, it's still an emerging marketplace with several obstacles. It would nice to see analysts exercise some restraint when it comes to growth projections to avoid the wild forecasts for e-commerce in the late-1990s.
If there's anything on your wish list, let me know and I'll put out some more comprehensive.
Xmas List
With 2004 coming to an end, I've been thinking about some of the things I'd like to see under the “tree” by next Christmas. In no particular order:
1. Vonage's IPO: Let's really get a handle on whether Jeffrey Citron's latest creation meets the hype that has surrounded it for the past two years. With more than US$100-million in private equity raised, the expectations within the investment community are huge. While Citron has been coy about an IPO, you have to believe Vonage is simply waiting for just the right time – the right offer given Citron's track record – before a transaction happens. My take is Vonage's IPO will be huge because many investors will let their enthusiasm swamp the company's fundamentals or the competitive landscape, which is becoming more intense. If Citron follows his entrepreneurial modus operandi, do not be surprised to see Vonage taken out by an AT&T or SBC in 2005.
2. DIY Residential VOIP: I'm not talking about the plain vanilla VOIP currently being served up, which appeals to the early adopter set and people looking for a single Internet telephony line, but VOIP for a multi-handset households. Perhaps one of the cordless handset makers such as VTech, Panasonic or Uniden will enter into some kind of joint venture with Vonage or CallVantage, and sell a package that includes telephony service, three or four handsets, and a router from SMC, Linksys or D-Link. The alternative is expensive in-home service involving a truck roll.
3. Regulatory clarity: In Canada, the CRTC is expected to rule early next year whether or if to regulate Internet telephony. The choices appears to be quasi-regulation where incumbent carriers are regulated while competitors are free to set their own prices; or a level playing field. In the U.S., the FCC has decided VOIP is a federal responsibility. Now let's see what the FCC does next as far as regulation or lack thereof.
4. Rational, Pragmatic Research: As the Internet telephony market matures, we're starting to see some of the consulting firm issue forecasts about growth over the next three to five years. Not surprisingly, many of them are ultra-bullish given it's hard to sell research without some sizzle. Despite the excitement surrounding the technology, it's still an emerging marketplace with several obstacles. It would nice to see analysts exercise some restraint when it comes to growth projections to avoid the wild forecasts for e-commerce in the late-1990s.
If there's anything on your wish list, let me know and I'll put out some more comprehensive.