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Sorry, Guys

November 20th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

I wrote a column in yesterday's National Post in which I argued that trading in Nortel Networks should be suspended and that analysts covering the company were doing their clients a disservice because they were working with incomplete financial information.
Turns out perhaps that thesis was a bit rash, although it had the right intentions. Suspending trading, while in theory a solid idea until Nortel gets its house in order, would be unworkable given there are more than 4 billion shares out there. Forcing people to wait on the sidelines until this accounting and management debacle works itself out is probably not the best scenario.
As for analysts, they are doing a job they would refer not to do. That said, you have to believe clients, brokers and Nortel are expecting them to slog it out until the bitter end. As someone told me told, “It's not like they can stop writing simply because there isn't enough information”. So, I say “my bad” to all those hard working analysts out there. It's a crappy job but someone's got to do it.

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VOIP Growth in Canada

November 19th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

Not sure about Michael Sone's thesis but in a new report he expects the number of residential customers using Internet telephony will soar to more than 1.1 million by 2007 from 29,000 at the end of this year. At first blush, this seems like an over-the-top bullish target given there does not seem to be a huge groundswell of interest in Internet telephony currently. Perhaps Sone believes the entry of players such as Bell Canada will convince people to give up their circuit-switch phones. Another factor could be the price-cap regime, which comes up for renewal in 2006. If the CRTC lifts the price limitations on local service, it could give Internet telephony the room it needs to get a large market foothold.

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All aboard Telco TV

November 19th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

To very little surprise, Bell Canada was awarded two licenses yesterday by the CRTC to offer digital television service in 11 communities in Ontario and Quebec. Bell will provide the service over its high-speed Internet network but did not tip its hand when the product will be rolled out. Bell's sister company, ExpressVu, is already offering TV-over-copper service into more than 200 apartment buildings and condominiums using VDSL technology so you would think Bell will use the same technology to go after residential customers. An issue Bell may still have to work through is not so much the delivery of TV signals but the value-added features that will convince consumers to give up their cable connections. Bell has a trial going on with Microsoft Corp., which signed a US$400-million software deal with SBC Communications Inc. earlier this week to do IP-TV next year. Differentiation - whether it's carriers getting into TV, or cable companies moving into telephony - will have to be done on something more than price. This will be a huge challenge for players trying to cross into new markets that should not be under-estimated.

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Bell Canada Going VOIP

November 18th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

Not sure if Bell Canada was ready to tell the world about its decision to jump into the residential Internet telephony market but the cat is now out of the bag. According to Alek Krstajic, Bell Canada's chief marketing officer, the carrier will be ready to offer service to its Sympatico high-speed customers in 2005, before it is rolled out to “everyone and everywhere”. To date, Bell has only said it was conducting tests of Internet telephony technology, but clearly it has been more aggressive as rivals such as Rogers Cable Inc. prepare to get into the market next year. Bell's move should not be a surprise given the moves it has been making in delivering IP-TV to apartments and condominiums. Compared to delivering video service over IP, voice should be a snap.
The big question is whether Bell is going to cannibalize its local phone base by offering what will likely be an inexpensive product in a market where price will likely be king. I suspect Bell will make it part of their bundles. If you want to buy Internet telephony, you'll also have to purchase wireless and/or satellite-TV and/or IP-TV. The good news for consumers is Bell will do a good job of educating the market about the advantages of Internet telephony and alleviate concerns people have about issues such as 911 and back-up power.
For Canadian consumers willing to jump into the fray, their choices in 2005 will include Bell, Rogers, Shaw Communications, Primus Telecommunications, Yak Communications, BabyTel, Vonage and AOL Canada. If high-speed Internet access and IP-TV penetration are any indication, Canada could prove to be a leading Internet telephony market.

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SBC Dives into IP-TV

November 17th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

The folks in Redmond have to be smiling from ear to ear today after SBC Communications Inc. decided to spend US$400-million over the next 10 years on Microsoft software as part of a plan to offer digital television services to 18 million customers over high-speed Internet connections. For many carriers, IP-TV is a must-have product if they want to offer consumers a “triple-play” bundle to compete with cable rivals. SBC's move is a sign that IP-TV technology is finally ready for prime time - something that may convince carriers, who have been running “trials” for the last several years, to finally climb onboard. In Canada, SaskTel and Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. have been offering IP-TV service for the past year - proving that we are on the leading-edge when it comes to broadband access and services. The proliferation of IP-TV in Canada should gain momentum as Bell Canada rolls out its VDSL platform to apartments and condominiums in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa.

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CBC's Nortel Torque

November 16th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

I'm rarely in the habit of criticizing other media organizations for their coverage but CBC's latest torque of a class-action lawsuit involving Nortel is misleading and exploitive. The CBC is making a huge deal today of an “exclusive” interview they did with a fellow named John Foster, who worked as a scheduling engineer with Nortel in Dallas before being laid off in 2001. Foster claims he told the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2001 that Nortel was doing some odd things when it came to revenue recognition. It is important to note as a scheduling engineer, Foster did not have access to Nortel's accounting systems so he's making assumptions and guess-timates rather than basing his assertions on real figures.
Now, anyone can say anything in a class-action lawsuit but it doesn't mean it's newsworthy. The CBC's decision to interview Foster about his allegations is what I would describe as “news manufacturing”. If you wanted to sift through all the class-action lawsuits against Nortel, you could write nothing but allegation stories until the cows came home. But this “let's turn a lawsuit into news” approach is nothing new to the CBC, which pulled off a similar stunt a couple weeks ago. If ex-CFO Doug Beatty or ex-CEO Frank Dunn decided to spill the beans (which they won't do because they still have severance/settlement issues) that would be huge news that the CBC could justify leading off their newscasts with. I'm not suggesting the Foster interview isn't news, it's just not that good.
Just to hammer home the point, here's are parts of an interview done with Foster today.
When asked to comment on CBC's assertion he's a key whistle-blower:
“They [the CBC] are making some of that up because I don't [know where the money went.] I wasn't saying Nortel is worse than Enron or anything. All I was saying was that the records weren't good enough to say what was happening. All I was trying to do was get the scheduling system fixed. It only becomes intentional if you don't fix it.”
On the total revenue that could have been misrepresented, which claims could have been as high as US$900-million:
“It was a big figure and I have no way of knowing the actual figure…..It wasn't even just a best guess. It was just a ball park figure.”
On why he went to the SEC after he was fired:
“Partly, because I couldn't take it to the company, could I?”
The CBC's believes they have a huge scoop. I think their enthusiasm got the best of them.
For a good take on Nortel's corporate governance woes and the CBC's flawed “investigation” check out Terence Corcoran's editorial in the National Post.

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CityFido: It's Alive

November 15th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

CityFido is apparently alive and well, although you may have a tough time
recognizing it in the future. Rogers rolled CityFido into Montreal
yesterday, and quietly raised the price of the “local line killer” to $51.95
from $45 by slapping on a $6.95 a month charge for network access. What is
now offficial is the days of any semblance of price wars in the Canadian
wireless market are long gone. Microcell was the one rebel willing to play
the discount game - a practice that drove Telus, Rogers and Bell wild.
Anyone who believes Virgin Canada will fill the void will be disappointed
given Bell owns a 50% stake. It is interesting to see Virgin has lost all
kinds momentum with its decision to shift its launch from the key
fourth-quarter to some time early next year. Virgin claims its delay has
nothing to do with the billing problems that hurt Bell Mobility in the
third-quarter, or a examination being done by the Ministry of Canadian
Heritage into downloads of ringtones. There's noise that all's not well
between Virgin and Bell.

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Internet vs. TV

November 15th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

After having the motherboard of my Dell laptop melt down, I've been left computer-less at home for the past three weeks. To be honest, I've felt out of sorts ever since. It has dawned on me that I could easily live with TV. With the exception of a few shows and NFL football, I'm constantly reminded of Bruce Springsteen's “57 Channels (And Nothin' On)” whenever I channel surf. These days, I would be more unhappy if my high-speed connection went on the fritz as opposed to my cable connection. There must be a lot of people in the same boat, which explains why Bell, Telus, Rogers et al are able to keep high-speed prices at healthy levels.

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RIM waits and waits

November 13th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

What I want to know is who the mole within the judges chambers that keeps
whispering about an impending decision in RIM's legal battle with NTP Inc.
For the past two weeks, RIM shares have been buffeted around on a decision
apparently about to come out. It's now mid-November, and we're still waiting
even after a new flurry of speculation yesterday. Anyone buying or selling
on this “news” is simply speculating rather than acting on inside tips. What
people should focus on is what happens if RIM loses\wins, and what impact it
will have on the business.

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We Love Wireless

November 10th, 2004 | No Comments | Posted in Main Page

In the telecom world, it is easy to understand how wireless has captured the
imagination of analysts. After all, there's growth in them thar hills
compared to the fading fortunes of wireline carriers. At a Scotia Capital
conference today, analyst John Henderson said among the reasons he likes
Canadian wireless carriers is the growth of wireless data, which he
describes as a “sustainable long-term trend”. He cited the performance of
Rogers Wireless, which got 6% of its third-quarter revenue from data
services such as e-mail, ringtones, games and text-messaging. Henderson is
bullish about the prospects of data because it only accounts for 5% to 6% of
wireless revenue in Canada, compared with 15% to 20% in other places around
the world.
Another interesting comment by Henderson was his belief the hype over cable
telephony is “overblown”. Even if Shaw Communications takes 12.5% of Telus
Corp.'s local access lines by 2007, Telus would lose less than $100-million
of revenue. This compares with the $1-billion of additional sales Telus is
expected to get from its wireless division within the next three years.

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