Mark Evans

A Rare Google Casualty

In what may be a first, Google is closing down part of its empire - albeit a little-known photo-sharing service called Hello that was acquired as part of Picasa in 2005.

There’s probably been Google services that have quietly disappeared into the bowels of the Googleplex never to be seen again (Dodgeball?) but closing a service has not been part of Google’s operating manual.

Then again, when you have an army of developers spending churning out new services, at some point you have a buffet of products (or “100 children” as Monster founder Jeff Taylor describes it). Not all of them can be successful even if you slap the Google brand on them.

In the book “It’s All Too Much” about battling clutter, they suggest that for every thing new you bring into your house, you throw something out. Maybe Hello is just Google doing some de-cluttering.

For more, check out Mathew Ingram, who says Hello was a solid service. As well, check out Ryan Spoon’s list of the 15 online services he would pay to use.

Technorati Tags: Google , Hello

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Is Flickr Worth $4-Billion?

In the wake of Microsoft’s aborted courtship of Yahoo and Jerry “Oh, did you increase your offer?” Yang, there’s bound to be a lot of scrutiny about what’s next for Yahoo.

One asset that’s well known but perhaps not scrutinized from an investment perspective is Flickr, the world’s most popular photo-sharing site that Yahoo picked up for a song (estimated $40-million) in 2005. Today, Flickr attracts more than 44 million unique visitors a month, according to Comscore, while Compete.com reports Flickr had 30 million unique visitors and 70.2 million page views in the U.S. last month.

Despite Flickr’s popularity, it is arguably under-monetized. In terms of advertising, it’s minimal at best. Instead, Flickr makes most of its money by selling Flickr Pro memberships for $24.95/year and offers e-commerce services through partners such as photocards, posters, frames and calendars.

So, what’s Flickr worth, and, more important, what could it be worth if it was managed more aggressively?

Let’s do some back of the envelope calculations based on its current financial model. If you assume 10% of its 44 million unique visitors have Flickr Pro accounts, that’s about $110-million in revenue; if it’s only 5%, it’s $55-million. Then, add another $10-million in e-commerce commissions.

What you get is revenue of $65-million to $120-million. If we now take Henry Blodget’s 25X revenue formula (which he applied to Facebook), Flickr is worth $1.5-billion to $3-billion.

Scenario II: Flickr Monetized Better

With online advertising gaining so much traction, Flickr would be a very attractive target given its traffic and user demographics. For the sake of argument, let’s assume Flickr changed business tactics and introduced two high-profile advertising slots throughout the service. I choose two because it would be significant without pissing off most of Flickr users, who regard Flickr as their personal property and are resistant to change of any kind.

If Flickr could get $5/CPM, that would generate $10-million in advertising/year based on the assumption it’s getting about 100 million global pageviews/month. It’s not a lot of revenue given the conservative approach to how much advertising Flickr would present and how much it would charge but, nevertheless, it would give Flickr an additional $250-million based on Blodget’s formula.

Then, you’re looking at a company worth $1.75-billion to $3.25-billion. Add on a takeover or IPO premium of perhaps 25%, and you’re looking at a valuation of $2.2-billion to $4-billion.

More: For a story on Flickr’s growth and success, check out this story in USA Today. Here’s Blodget’s list of the 25 most-valuable privately-owned startups. As well, Mashable’s Adam Ostrow calling MySpace “the biggest steal in Internet history”

The graph below looks at the number of unique visitors last month for Facebook, Flickr and Photobucket, which was acquired by News Corp. last year for $300-million.

Technorati Tags: Flickr, Yahoo

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Wanted/Needed: Twitter Services Directory

One of the best aspects of Twitter is the flurry of cool related services that seem to be released on a daily basis.

The launch of TwitterFone yesterday got me thinking how useful it would be to have a directory where you could find any Twitter-related service. It would be something similar to the Wordpress Plugin Directory, and be a user-friendly destination where Twitter aficionados could easily and quickly find services to make Twitter more useful, powerful, fun, etc.

If I had the time and, more important, the programming skills, this would be something I would, in theory, create. But I’m sure there’s an entrepreneurial soul out there who could take on this project in no time at all!

Note: A Twitter directory may already exist. If you know of one, leave a comment. If you’re looking for interesting Twitter applications, a search for “best Twitter services” will give you lots of places to waste/invest some time.

More: Speaking of Twitter, ParisLemon has a post looking at how the mainstream media is starting to catch on. He points to a Reuters story on how breaking news breaks on Twitter.

As well: In other Twitter news, Twitter has created an official spammer blacklist. One question: why did it take so long given spam is becoming such a big problem. Everyone knew it was coming so you figured Twitter would have been ahead of the game.

Technorati Tags: Twitter, Wordpress

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Climbing Aboard Grand Effect

Not that I had to think about it much but I’ve decided to take the plunge and join a new blog network called Grand Effect.…and it’s all Corvida’s fault.

A month or so ago, I was reading Corvida’s SheGeeks (which I had happily just discovered), and noticed she was a member of something called Grand Effect. Curious, I learned this was a new network started by Sarah Perez that was going to have a small handful of members. That sounded good but what got me interested were the top-notch names on board. In addition to Corvida and Sarah, there was M.G. Siegler (ParisLemon), Federic (The Last Podcast) and David Peralty.

Impressed, I dropped a note to Sarah, and was pleasantly surprised (and flattered) when earlier this week, I received an invitation to join Grand Effect. I know Grand Effect is interested in attracting advertising. And while that would be a nice development, I’m more excited about joining a group of high-quality group of tech bloggers who are part of something new and exciting at a time when there’s so much happening within the blogging, social media and online advertising worlds.

To learn more about Grand Effect, click here, while you can get information on its bloggers, which also include fellow Canadian Steve Hodson, here.

Technorati Tags: Blogs, Grand Effect, Sarah Perez

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Would You Buy a MacBook Clone?

There’s a lot of chatter about “rebel” computer makers such Psystar Corp. sticking their collective tongues at Steve Jobs by selling desktops featuring Mac OS X at much lower prices than an Apple-made machine.

To date, these computers have been interesting and somewhat newsworthy but far from compelling because desktop computers are far from sexy.

But what would happen if someone started selling a knock-off MacBook or MacBook Pro that had the look, feel and OS as the Real McCoy? Now, that would be interesting for anyone interested in buying a MacBook/MacBook Pro but unable or unwilling to drop $1,300 to $3,000.

Let’s say, for example, you could buy a knock-off MacBook for $600. Would you do it even though it didn’t have Steve Jobs’ personal seal of approval?

Technorati Tags: Apple, MacBook

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So Much to Do, Not Enough Time!

Not sure why it’s happening but over the past little while, I’ve run into a common theme during conversations and meetings, on Twitter and e-mail: many people feel they don’t have enough time to do all the things they want/need to do.

Keep in mind these are “knowledge workers” who spend their working days in front of computers with access to all the goodies on the Web. These are well-educated, smart people who have most likely worked hard, and enjoy various degrees of professional success. Yet despite their intelligence and success, they’re running into a time scarcity.

Why is that? Is it a question of priorities and simply the need to do everything - blog, Twitter, listen to music, exercise read, work, attend conferences, socialize, spend time with family and sneak in a few hours of sleep. Perhaps we’ve become consumed the idea of multi-tasking, and the notion that we should be multi-tasking at all times.

Think about it; how often do you really focus on just one thing? How often are you driving, checking your e-mail and talking to your children? Or writing a document, checking Twitter and bouncing over to see if you’re still winning the auction on eBay. More often that you think.

On far too many occasions, I joke that it would be good to have multiple versions of Mark Evans - sort of like Michael Keaton in Multiplicity. One would be completely focused on work; one would be the ultimate family guy; one would learn Spanish and HTML; one would play hockey several times a week; and one would just read, watch movies and have long, casual lunches with friends and family.

In the absence of cloning, the one Mark Evans does what he can, which means getting up early in the morning to do blog posts, read the paper, enjoy the first cup of coffee, play hockey, check e-mail and surf the Web. Of course, there’s a limit to how early you can wake up.

At the same time, I’ve also started to realize you can’t do it all so it’s okay to have a day or two go by without checking Twitter or Facebook; it’s okay to rarely watch television or try to read the weekend papers from cover to cover; and it’s okay to focus on only one thing be it a key work assignment, the crossword, a blog post or playing with your children.

For people who feel strapped for time, check out a talk that Merlin Mann did recently entitled “Attention Sinks and Time Burglars” in which he correctly asserts that “Time and attention are finite resources - two of the most precious resources we have as human beings”, and how people “have a lot of trouble keeping time and attention trained on things that are really valuable”.

For any who feels the day isn’t long enough or there’s too much to do, give it a listen - that is, if you have the 60 minutes to do it. For anyone looking for help, Merlin suggests two books: The Now Habit and Getting Things Done.

Update: Dosh Dosh has a good post on prioritization to improve your work and learning efficiency. Google Blogoscoped has a post on how to deal with information overload, which features tips from a variety of the digerati.

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Yahoo’s Smorgasbord is the Problem

It’s Monday, the sun is shining and it’s the first day of the New Yahoo now that the evil empire - Microsoft - has been repelled after a two-month siege.

Now what, Mr. Jerry Yang? Surely, you’ve got something up your strategic sleeve that somehow convinced the Yahoo board to walk away from a $40-billion offer. Maybe as Dan Farber suggests, Yahoo is betting its future of Y!Open that will make Yahoo an open and social platform.

Yahoo and Yang are getting all kinds of suggestions about what to do now: Henry Blodget encourages Yahoo to do the outsourcing deal with Google while Howard Lindzon suggests Yang stop blogging and focus on increasing shareholder value.

Perhaps another strategic issue Yahoo should seriously explore is whether is needs to be all things to all people. As Monster co-founder Jeff Taylor put it last week during a conversation the Communitech conference, Yahoo has an extensive service portfolio. He describes it as having “100 children”. As any parent with more than one child would appreciate, trying to manage multiple children is challenging let alone 100.

For a sense of what Yahoo is bringing to the table, check out a directory ironically called Yahoo! Everything. It features pretty much everything within the Yahoo empire that has been launched organically over the past 14 years or been acquired. The list is impressive but also daunting given Yahoo is everywhere and anywhere.

The question is whether trying to be all-things-to-all-people makes sense or works. Is it possible to effectively manage a business with so many tentacles? How do you nurture the ones with more growth potential while still keeping your other children happy?

If you want to illustrate Yahoo’s strategic challenges, let’s take a look at del.icio.us, the popular bookmarking that Yahoo acquired in 2005 for $20-million. Since then, del.icio.us hasn’t changed that much, although a major upgrade has apparently been in the works for months, and it hasn’t been extensively integrated that much within the Yahoo empire.

So, why did Yahoo buy del.icio.us other than wanting access to its millions of users? What was the strategic fit? This is just one example but I’m sure you could go through Yahoo Everything, and ask the same question for dozens of organically-created services and acquisitions.

As Yang scrambles to create YAM (Yahoo After Microsoft) maybe he needs to look at the company’s service smorgasbord to determine what Yahoo really needs to be successful. Maybe kicking a few children out of the house (e.g. closing, selling or spinning off business units) would be a good move to give everyone else more room to grow.

More: ReadWriteWeb’s Marshall Kirkpatrick has a good post looking at how your favorite Yahoo services are safe for now.

Technorati Tags: Jerry Yang, Microsoft, Yahoo

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Let’s Get the (Yahoo-Microsoft Blogging Party) Started

So, Microsoft has withdrawn its hostile bid for Yahoo - putting the Saturday night plans of tech bloggers around the world into total disarray with dinner plans cancelled, NBA and NBA playoff games abandoned, cold libations sadly gone lukewarm, and partners, wives and girlfriends left cooling their collective heels.

In other words, the blogosphere is furiously jumping on the Yahoo-Microsoft story like drowning sailors scrambling to get on life rafts. It’s the story and no one wants to be left behind. Because anyone and everyone can jump into the conversation, they probably will.

The heavyweights - CNet, GigaOm, TechCrunch, Paul Kedrosky, BoomTown, CenterNetworks - have already weighed into the fray with instant analysis. Pretty soon, Techmeme will be completely overwhelmed as the blogosphere goes into overdrive.

Stepping back from the news itself, it’s pretty fascinating to see how a major development can spawn a feeding (blogging?) frenzy with everyone excited about talking as opposed to simply listening. Since they (Blogger, Wordpress, TypePad) built it, they (bloggers) will come.

I’m not suggesting people shouldn’t blog to their heart’s content about Microsoft walking away from Yahoo after spending so much time trying to woo Jerry Yang et al into the fold. If you’ve got something to say, do it but you’ll have a lot of company…include me, I guess.

Update: Not that it’s a surprise but the Microsoft-Yahoo news has consumed nearly all of Techmeme.

Technorati Tags: Blogs, Microsoft, Yahoo

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The Weekly Wrap

The week that was in MET:

Highlights:

- Moderating a panel at the Communitech Leadership Conference featuring Monster co-founder Jeff Taylor, Chris “Long Tail” Anderson, venture capitalist Rick Segal and Chris Sacca, who resigned from Google to become a start-up consultant and VC.

For anyone interested in being an entrepreneur, Sacca’s keynote was insightful as well as entertaining. His advice to start-ups: focus on the user, solve problems, follow feedback and keep evolving. Another tip: don’t assume you know what’s good for your users. Case in point: Facebook’s Beacon program, which Sacca suggested showed Facebook’s “hubris” because it took the approach it knew what users wanted.

- Who Uses Twitter?: At the conference, I conducted a poll on who was using Twitter. Of the 300 people, a dozen people raised their hands. In contrast, 75% of them are using Facebook. Prediction: Within a year, at least 50% of them will be using Twitter. Of course, there will likely be a new and exciting tool that make will make Twitter look a lot like Facebook does now!

- Finally meeting Mike Pegg, who’s being transfered by Google to Silicon Valley from Waterloo to work for Google Maps. Pegg is a classic blogger-done-good story. While working for Slipstream, he started a blog called Google Maps Mania, which covered Web sites, mashups and tools based on Google Maps. The site became so popular that Pegg was invited to present at a Google conference in Silicon Valley where he discovered many of Google’s senior executives read his blog. One thing led to another and he was hired by Google.

Most Popular Posts

1. Communications 101: How to Communicate. A post written in April 2007, its continued popularity makes me think may I should start a blog on effective communications.

2. Attention Digital Peasants: Rogers will bring the iPhone to Canada this year but no details about when and, more important, data plans. If Rogers’ introduction of Nokia’s N95 is any indication, people shouldn’t get their hopes too high.

3. Atta Go, Twitter: Rumors have it that Twitter is raising $15 million to $20 million. If investors want to hand over the cash, go for it.

4. Twitter’s Success: The Ecosystem: Looking at how the growing number of related-services is making Twitter increasing useful and popular.

Mystery Solved:

- Feedburner subscribers bounce back to “normal” after mysteriously dropped by 20%.

Wordpress:

- The new theme, Statement, is great, although it needs a little more tweaking. In the wonders-never-cease category, I was able to help someone on how to make the theme work with WP Stats.

Credit: Cartoon by Gaping Void

Technorati Tags: Blogging, Google , Google Maps

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Mozy On Over to Toronto

For Canadian users of the Mozy.com, the company’s most recent newsletter is downright embarrassing. Mozy founder Josh Coates went to Montreal recently only to discover that:

“the streets were on fire and full of police and rioting citizens because I guess they won an O-KAY (that’s hockey) game. My flight got in late that night and the taxi driver had to change his routes because the streets were blocked off by police.”

Welcome to Canada and the weird tradition in Montreal where people celebrate playoffs victories by the Montreal Canadiens by rioting and burning cars. This doesn’t happen in Toronto. Of course, the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t made the playoffs in three years or won the Stanley Cup in 41 years.

Next time you’re in Canada, Josh, swing by Toronto. Bad sports teams but the citizens are well behaved!

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